Small Craft Advisory 694, NWS Anchorage, AK

029 
FZAK52 PAFC 042311
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051145-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1009 MB LOW 190 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES TO 140 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1013 MB SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATES.
A 998 MB LOW 430 NM WEST OF ATTU SAT MORNING MOVES TO 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF ATTU AT 1001 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051145-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051145-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
421 PM AKDT THU SEP 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS PRODUCED NICE WEATHER FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW
LOCATED NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS HAS USHERED IN BROAD AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE MAINLAND. THE MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURE ON
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND INTO LOWER
COOK INLET. THIS FEATURE IS FOCUSING A STEADIER AND MORE INTENSE
BAND OF RAIN THAT IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH THE NORTH GULF COAST AND ALL POINTS BETWEEN.

BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE WEAKER BUT CONTINUED WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA WITH WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. FURTHER EAST EVEN ONCE THE RAIN ENDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THINGS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT MUCH AS THIS
ONSHORE FLOW IS CONTINUALLY REINFORCING THE LOW CLOUDS ALREADY
MOVING ONSHORE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE KEY DETAILS OF
THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS HAS
BEEN WHEN AND HOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE NOW DEPICTING AN INITIAL LOW
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND QUICKLY THEREAFTER IS
REPLACED BY A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST. THIS MAKES SENSE
GIVEN FAIRLY DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS TO KEEP ENERGY
LOCKED INTO ONE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER (WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS IS
TRYING TO DO). THEREFORE WE WILL SHY AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION
TODAY IN FAVOR OF THE NAM/EC/GEM-REGIONAL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN HAS MOVED INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AND
WILL GENERALLY STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NO LOW RH ISSUES OR
STRONG WINDS IN INTERIOR AREAS ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
KEEPS THE STATE UNDER SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-COVER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE SNOW GLACIER-DAMMED LAKE DEEP IN THE KENAI MOUNTAINS CONTINUES
TO RELEASE WATER INTO SNOW RIVER KENAI LAKE AND THE KENAI RIVER.
THE KENAI RIVER AT COOPER LANDING HAS ENTERED MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AND A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KENAI RIVER
FROM KENAI LAKE TO SKILAK LAKE AS WELL AS FOR LOW LYING AREAS
AROUND KENAI LAKE. SEE ADVISORY STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE INFORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
ITS MARCH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE IS
VERY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL HAVING CLEARED KODIAK ISLAND AND
BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATIFORM RAIN
TURNING INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
BY SATURDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT THROUGH
THE AREA LIMITING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE
WRANGELLS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST AND ZONAL OVER THE REGION WITH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE TRACKING FROM THE EASTERN
BERING INTO THE MAINLAND BRINGING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MOISTURE
AND RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THESE LOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE
INLAND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK
IN RAIN BEFORE ANOTHER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF INTERMITTENT
RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES WILL MAKE
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN AND SHOWERS TRACKING OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. AN
ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN WITH IT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SHIFT FURTHER
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE FALLING APART OVER THE
PANHANDLE. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY BEHIND THIS PARTING
SHORTWAVE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE BERING SEA DROP
SOUTH AND CREATE A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS COMPARED TO THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN SEEN AS OF LATE. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH OF ALASKA
IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STORMS TO TRACK FROM THE BERING SEA
INTO INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF ALASKA. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER THE MAINLAND AND
JOINING UP WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS CAN BRING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS FROM THE ARCTIC OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AS THE ARCTIC TROUGH DIVES FURTHER SOUTH BY MIDWEEK. AS A
RESULT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND WOULD DROP BELOW NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS ARCTIC TROUGH DIVE SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS IS THAT ALL GUIDANCE IS NOW HINTING AT THE ZONAL FLOW
KEEPING THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IGNACIO SOUTH OF THE GULF MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING IT INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OVERALL THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS OTHER
SYSTEMS OUT WEST LEAVING FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW THROUGH THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONE 121 AND 125.
MARINE...GALE 119 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...TP