Small Craft Advisory 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

417 
FZAK52 PAFC 172311 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

CORRECTED 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181215-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
DISSIPATE IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA LATE SUN NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW
350 NM SOUTHWEST OF AMCHITKA LATE SUN NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 150 NM
SOUTH OF AMCHITKA AT 983 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN TO 275 NM SOUTH
OF ATKA AT 992 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-181215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT E OF SAND
POINT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181215-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181215-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-181215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 15 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE 10 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

505 
FZAK52 PAFC 181158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190030-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 325 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK TO 200 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK AT 987 MB MON NIGHT...THEN TO 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 997 MB TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-190030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SOUTH 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
BRISTOL BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
UNALASKA BAY-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 8
BUILDING TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 20 KT E OF AMCHITKA PASS.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W OF AMCHITKA PASS...N WIND 35 KT. E OF AMCHITKA PASS...N
WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF SHEMYA...NE WIND 35 KT. SHEMYA W...NE WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
358 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE 10 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

334 
FZAK52 PAFC 182301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191145-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF AMCHITKA WILL MOVE TO 320 NM
SOUTH OF COLD BAY AT 1004 MB WED AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 998 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL TUE NIGHT AND
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-191145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E... SE WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191145-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-191145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W
OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191145-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-191145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-191145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
STRONG AND DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
FROM A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TO
REACH ANY FURTHER EAST THAN THE ALASKA RANGE OR KODIAK ISLAND. TO
THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE...EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IS PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHILE THE RAIN IS BEGINNING DIMINISH. OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT ROUND TO RAINFALL TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
AKPENN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHERLY TRACK TODAY. CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGHOUT
THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. JUST OUT OF THE
AOR...YET ANOTHER NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN A PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN LIKE WE
ARE IN...THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BUT
THEY ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TRACK. THE NAM WAS MOSTLY THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE EAST...WHILE THE EC
WAS PREFERRED FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND WHERE IT IS CONFIDENCE IS
AT ITS HIGHEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WHILE A GENERALLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE WESTERN GULF/KODIAK
ISLAND IN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE ONE MINOR EXCEPTION IS THAT
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND UPPER WAVES TRAVELING NORTH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN KENAI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
WARM AND DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING RH VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS. COASTAL
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WHILE OFFSHORE AREAS WILL SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
UNDER THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THE PINCH BETWEEN THE GULF HIGH AND
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE FOR SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
MARINE AREAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL
WIND REGIMES WILL DOMINATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS BLOCKED THE FRONT FROM
MAKING ANY FURTHER PROGRESS INLAND. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING
SEA AND THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THE UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC TO ABOUT 35N...SO A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY BE THE
HIGHEST IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REGION IS DOMINATED THIS MORNING BY THE LARGE BROAD LOW
WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS ROUGHLY ALONG 171W. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONGEST TODAY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD LOW AND THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA REMAINS STRONG. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
ENOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDE
SWATH OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA...MAINLY WEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS
WITH IT...SO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT ON MONDAY OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THE TIME THE FRONT
REACHES THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...

ON TUESDAY...A GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STREAMING
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA. THE DOMINANCE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE THE NORM ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN. THERE
ARE...HOWEVER...STRONGER INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER
"DIRTY" RIDGE IN THAT EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE RIDGE AT TIMES AS THE ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM REMAINS IN PLACE.

ON THURSDAY...THE REMNANT REMAINS OF RECURVING TYPHOON DOLPHIN
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHWEST BERING SEA. THE ECMWF AND
GFS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE NOW RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH THAT
FEATURE...AND DEPICT A DEEP 960 TO 970 HPA LOW IMPACTING THE
WESTERN BERING. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY
RELEASE INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN ALOFT AS THIS SYSTEM
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRIED TO FORM A STRONG HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCK OVER ALASKA NEAR THE WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN. FOR
NOW THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...BUT IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN...MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WOULD EXPERIENCE RATHER
SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. BUT ONCE AGAIN...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE POTENTIAL
PATTERN GIVEN THE INTRICACIES INVOLVED WITH TYPHOON DOLPHIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 174 175 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JA