Small Craft Advisory 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 14, 2015, 3:00 PM AKDT (23:00 UTC)

Expired

May 15, 2015, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

947 
FZAK52 PAFC 142300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151130-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW 225 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT. A 994 MB LOW 120
NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO NUNIVAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AT
998 MB AND THEN DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
SAT AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA LATE THU NIGHT
WILL MOVE TO NEAR ATKA AT 990 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-151130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-151130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-151130-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-151130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-151130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-151130-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-151130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-151130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-151130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-151130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-151130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-151130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-151130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-151130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-151130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-151130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-151130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 14, 5:45 AM AKDT, 9 hours 15 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
545 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS NOW BRINGING WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY APPARENT OVER BRISTOL BAY WHICH IS SEEING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR...AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 200% STRETCHING
FROM BRISTOL BAY TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 45N. TO THE EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND INTO THE
PANHANDLE IS PREVENTING PRECIPITATION FROM FALLING FROM ANCHORAGE
EASTWARD...BUT HAS ALLOWED FOR MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES...WHICH IS ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM
WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...THERE REMAIN SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE IMPORTANT DETAILS. THE MOST NOTABLE IS THE GFS WHICH HAS
BEEN THE BEST HANDLING RAINFALL FROM THE AKPENN TO BRISTOL BAY
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM REGIONAL ARE
MUCH FURTHER TO THE EAST...MOSTLY MISSING RAINFALL THAT HAS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE AKPENN. OTHERWISE THE MODELS REMAIN
IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN DISAGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEGIN. THE EC IS THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST
NORTH WITH THIS LOW...BRINGING A CLOSED CIRCULATION INTO BRISTOL
BAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS PRODUCE A MUCH WEAKER WAVE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WHICH WAS THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK. SMALL
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST MAINLAND...BUT WITH OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE RIDGE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER IS HOLDING FIRM AS THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF PUSHES MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS
IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL KEEP
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM. THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COOK INLET REGION WERE
VERY DRY THIS MORNING AND THIS IS CAUSING A LOT OF VIRGA OVER THE
KENAI WESTERN PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SATURATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD THE CHANCES OF
THE RAIN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE DECREASE GREATLY. THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THEY REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE. KODIAK ISLAND IS UNDER THE OTHER
EXTREME WITH THE FRONT BEING SLOW TO MOVE FROM OVER THE TOP OF
THE ISLAND. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE KODIAK AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS FRIDAY. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING GUSTY WINDS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THROUGH
THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN THE MAT-
SU VALLEY TO KEEP RH LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN SPITE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL BE IN MUCH DRIER AIR THAN
OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING...SO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL STAY WET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THE LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING WILL RE-
ENFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE AREA.
THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY MOIST THIS MORNING WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS IN
THE REGION NEARING 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT THE PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL HAS PW VALUES OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULT HAS BEEN
STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL RATES OVER MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF ONE-HALF INCH OF RAINFALL FROM 06Z TO 12Z
THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS ALREADY EXPANDING NORTHWARD TODAY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION.
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE REGION AS WINDS FLOW THROUGH THE KAMISHAK
GAP TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TOMORROW.

THE LOW WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF MOISTURE
WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH..THUS REDUCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AS SEVERAL WEAK LOWS ARE KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAK WITH MOST WINDS BELOW 20-25 KTS. THE NEXT MAJOR
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW THAT WILL
MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL STILL REMAIN
REASONABLY WEAK AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY)...UNFORTUNATELY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN
THIS PERIOD. LET US START WITH THE FEW THINGS THAT LOOK MORE
CERTAIN. CONTINUED WET WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AK. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP
RAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEXT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH SOME OF THE STRONGER TURNAGAIN
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF ANCHORAGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE AIRPORT AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN. FINALLY...THIS WAVE
SHOULD ALSO BRING MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ITS BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF ANY DOWNSLOPING AND
PROVIDES THE BEST LIFT.

NOW WHERE THINGS HAVE SHOWED MORE VARIANCE IN THE
OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS IS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE. EARLIER THIS WEEK THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING AND PUSHING FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD HAVE KEPT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL DRY WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. THE TREND NOW (WITH THE GFS MODEL LEADING THE WAY) IS
FAVORING SLIDING THE UPPER-LEVEL BERING TROUGH FURTHER EAST AND
KEEPING THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE. WITH A MODEST JET
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE CONTINUING TO PUMP MOIST AIR IN FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC...WHERE THIS AXIS SETS UP WILL BE KEY. HAVE
TRENDED PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE KODIAK AND
PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LIKE THE
ONE WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK...SO ONCE AGAIN WE CAN EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...MSO

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2015Every small craft advisory in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.