Small Craft Advisory 372, NWS Anchorage, AK

147 
FZAK52 PAFC 011133
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020030-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 994 MB LOW 400 NM WEST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 50
NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 995 MB LATE SAT NIGHT. A FRONT SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-020030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020030-
BRISTOL BAY-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-020030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020030-
UNALASKA BAY-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-020030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 
4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 20 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-020030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
333 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. AREAS
OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. PATCHY
FOG.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKDT THU APR 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN GULF
THIS MORNING...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WHICH WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN SMALL SCALE FEATURES...BUT WITH THESE BEING FAIRLY
WEAK THE AFFECT ON THE FORECAST IS SMALL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE MORNING PACKAGE REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REMAINS NORTH OF THE OVERALL STORM
TRACK...CONTINUING WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND THE ABSENCE OF
STRONG WEATHER FEATURES. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
HELPED FOCUS SHOWER ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AROUND COOK INLET HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS A
RESULT...DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD.
WITH WEAK WINDS AND WEAK FORCING...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
AND REMAIN OVER AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AN EXPECTED SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA SHOULD HELP THINGS GET GOING EVEN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TOMORROW (FRIDAY) WILL BE MUCH THE SAME BEFORE
MIDLEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE
INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
YESTERDAY WAS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ALL THREE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ZONES. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND WITH PLENTIFUL
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN STORE. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS WITH NEW AND LEFTOVER
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DICTATING DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY OUTFLOW FROM THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CREEPS SLOWLY NORTH INTO FRIDAY...WITH
CONTINUED MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT LIKELY TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
STABILIZING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS MORE STABLE FLOW REGIME...COASTAL MARINE FOG
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WITH MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIANS. AS COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY THAT
WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST POSITIONING BY
SATURDAY BEFORE A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN POSITION THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

A GALE FORCE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
GALES AND PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING BY SATURDAY. THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST AND BECOMES AMPLIFIED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED HIGH DEVELOP IN THE AREA. THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL GIVE THE BERING SEA AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY TUESDAY. THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
LIKELY HAVE STRATUS AND FOG BUILDING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BY THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH WPC CONTINUING TO USE A
BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AMD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...PD/DK