High Wind Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

720 
WWAK71 PAFC 061227
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKDT MON APR 6 2015


AKZ101-070130-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0001.150407T0200Z-150407T1400Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0002.150407T0200Z-150407T1500Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
427 AM AKDT MON APR 6 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
AKDT TUESDAY ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
  THEN PEAK IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
  WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER. 
  LOOSE DEBRIS CAN BE MOVED AND DAMAGE PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
527 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD AND TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 160W FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA. ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DIG EAST ACROSS COOK INLET AND
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER BEHIND THE SNOW AND
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE A STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK
RESIDES FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL BERING
AND IS HELPING MOVE A STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. A SECOND JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
RACING EAST SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS TRAILING
DISTURBANCE WILL AMPLIFY QUICKLY TODAY AND DEVELOP A STRENGTHENING
FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BERING LOW WHICH WILL
ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND REACH BRISTOL BAY AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY GALE-FORCE WINDS WITH STORM-
FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS IT NEARS THE
CHANNELED AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT REMAINS VERY GOOD THERE ARE SOME
DETAILS THAT CROP UP THAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE INVOLVES A WAVE MOVING OVER KODIAK ISLAND
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS A SOLUTION THAT IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND EVEN CLOSES OFF THE LOW
CIRCULATION IN SHELIKOF STRAIT AND IS NOW GARNERING GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL. THE ECMWF IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM
THE NAM AND GEM WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE OPEN WAVE. THE FORECAST
UTILIZED A NAM BLEND WITH THE THE ECMWF MODEL DATA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS CONSOLIDATING THE ENERGY FROM THE BERING SEA LOW INTO ONE
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH
ITS COARSER RESOLUTION RATHER THAN KEEPING THE ANCHOR LOW NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH THE TRIPLE POINT OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS THE PARENT LOW AND TRIPLE POINT SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE ECMWF
NAM AND GEM MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL RACE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING PRECIPITATION CONFINED MAINLY TO
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFIED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO THE
COOK INLET REGION AND GULF COAST. AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES AND THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT SOUTHEAST CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES ALONG THE GULF
COAST (INCLUDING KODIAK) WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING RAIN/SNOW ON
NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES. WIDESPREAD GALES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MARINE AREAS WITH STRONG GALES (AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
FORCE GUSTS TUESDAY MORNING) IN THE TYPICAL BARRIER JET REGION EAST
OF MONTAGUE ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WET OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND TODAY AS THE ROBUST 984 MB LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT 200 NM
WEST OF SAINT PAUL CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD TO NEAR SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THIS
MORNING BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS
SHOULD BE ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON WARM AIR FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SHOULD
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TURNING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AND MOSTLY RAIN IN THE BRISTOL
BAY REGION.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE WITH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONSIST OF MOSTLY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS SOME MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER THE TERRAIN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE ENTIRE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS AS THE 984MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND MOVES TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT BROAD SWATHS OF GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TO
BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT. THE BREAK IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL
SWATH OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION TOMORROW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED THE STRENGTH OF THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION DOWN OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS THUS GRADUALLY LOWERING THE FORECASTED WINDS OVER
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO GALE
WARNINGS OVER THE REGION.

WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA EXPECT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PRECIPITATION IN THE PRIBILOFS SHOULD BEGIN AS MOSTLY RAIN TODAY
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...TUE THROUGH FRI)...SEVERAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START TUESDAY WITH ONE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPED THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT THIS SYSTEM AS IT STRETCHES ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ENERGY SHIFTING INTO THE
SHELIKOF STRAIT AREA AND STARTING TO TREK TOWARDS COOK INLET.
MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING THIS WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE CREATING A CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE MORE MODERATE IN KEEPING JUST AN OPEN WAVE.
THIS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THOSE GLOBAL MODELS AS THE NAM
APPEARS TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE ENERGY TRANSFERS AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION NEEDED FOR SUCH RAPID DEVELOPMENT. AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL TUE EXPECT WINDS TO REALLY RAMP
UP IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TO SOME EXTENT EVEN IN
THE MAT VALLEY AND WEST ANCHORAGE. IT WILL ALSO BRING A HEALTHY DOSE
OF PRECIPITATION TO MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLENTY WARM TO KEEP THE PRECIP ALL RAIN
FOR MOST POPULATION CENTERS DURING THE DAY BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
FLAKES MIX IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT AS COLD AIR STARTS TO GET PULLED
IN AND WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THEN REPEATS ITSELF WITH A NEW LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING BY LATE TUE. THIS LOW STARTS TO FALL APART WED AS
IT SWINGS ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WARMER AIR QUICKLY
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS. A NEW TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ALONG THE
REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND JUST REINFORCES THE
PRECIPITATION AND GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BY WED AFTERNOON THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
REACHES THE WEST COAST AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS ONCE AGAIN
TO HOW IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF AND DRIFTING TOWARDS THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND LATE THU INTO FRI. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
TODAY WHICH WOULD PULL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH OF THE COOK
INLET AREA AND MAINLY AFFECT THE COAST. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS
FEATURE CLOSELY. BOTTOM LINE EXPECT A MUCH WETTER AND SOMEWHAT
WINDIER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 155 170 171 172 173 174 175 176
         177 178 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1031 AM AKDT SUN APR 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     SNOW             GIRDWOOD                60.94N 149.18W
04/05/2015  M8.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            8.0 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT. STILL SNOWING AS OF
            8AM AT THE TIME OF MEASUREMENT.

0945 AM     SNOW             1 NNE POTTER MARSH      61.07N 149.77W
04/05/2015  M1.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT IN ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE.

0945 AM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.25N 149.42W
04/05/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.0 INCHES OF NEW SNOW MEASURED AT 930AM NEAR THE END OF
            HILAND ROAD. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1005 AM     SNOW             4 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.77W
04/05/2015  M1.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1.5 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOW MEASURED. STILL SNOWING
            LIGHTLY AS OF 10AM. NOT ACCUMULATING ON ROADS.

1009 AM     SNOW             6 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.99W
04/05/2015  M0.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            0.5 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AT THE NWS SAND LAKE OFFICE.
            SNOW FELL BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 4 AM AND 8 AM.

&&

RDUELL