High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

025 
WHAK42 PAFC 080143
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
443 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

AKZ155-090145-
/O.EXT.PAFC.SU.Y.0003.151108T1800Z-151110T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
443 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM AKST
MONDAY ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* LOCATION...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 10 TO 15 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 1
  TO 3 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH 
  TIDE CYCLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

670 
WHAK42 PAFC 081312
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

AKZ155-091315-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0003.151108T1800Z-151110T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
412 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM AKST MONDAY ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* LOCATION...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 10 TO 15 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 
  1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
  CYCLES TODAY AND MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

674 
WHAK42 PAFC 090057
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

AKZ155-100100-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-151110T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
357 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST MONDAY
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* LOCATION...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 10 TO 15 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 
  1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH 
  TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND MONDAY. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

306 
WHAK42 PAFC 091321
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
421 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

AKZ155-100100-
/O.CON.PAFC.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-151110T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
421 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...

* LOCATION...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST.

* WAVES AND SURF...SEAS 10 TO 15 FT WITH A COASTAL SURGE BETWEEN 
  1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. 

* TIMING...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
  CYCLES TODAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WAVE ACTION WITH SOME BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

338 
WHAK42 PAFC 100127
CFWALU

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015


AKZ155-100230-
/O.EXP.PAFC.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-151110T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
427 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS EXPIRED ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST...


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
426 PM AKST FRI NOV 6 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND...BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
UNDER THIS TROUGH...FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE
COOK INLET REGION WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST A WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN AROUND A SURFACE LOW
THAT HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF SEWARD...WHICH IS STARTING TO BRING
OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE GULF COAST. OVER THE BERING SEA A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CENTERED NEAR KAMCHATKA STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHERN BERING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS. OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION CAN BE SEEN
ENTERING THE VIEW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR DETAILS WITH
TIMING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO STRONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MAINLAND...WHICH DOESNT MATCH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND WAS
TREATED AS AN OUTLIER. AFTER SATURDAY MORNING...MODEL AGREEMENT
BEGINS TO IMPROVE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE BERING AND THEN INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT
THERE IS NOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH THERE REMAINS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW WARM AIR THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING...RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE ENTERS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION PRODUCING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE GULF LOW TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. AS NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN GAP
AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY
EVENING. MARINE AREAS AROUND THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL SEE
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STOUT LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING AND WILL BE RAPIDLY
MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SUNDAY WHICH WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COOK INLET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN COOK INLET REGION BEFORE TURNING
TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF A STRONG LOW OVER THE GULF ARE STILL
BEING FELT ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND A BRIEF LOSS OF VERTICAL
MOTION OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE COLDER INTERIOR
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH A MIX OF RAIN OVER THE
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY PICK BACK UP
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA...AS DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND OFF THE
EASTERN BERING SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL DRIVE A
POTENT WARM FRONT TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY BRING RAIN AND WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT OCCLUDES AND COLDER
AIR QUICKLY REPLACES THE WARM AIR OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH
REGARDS TO WHEN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHIFTS FROM MODERATE
RAINFALL TO SNOW REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD
AIR MOVES IN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WE CAN EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO SNOW TO
START ALONG THE WESTERN COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE INTERIOR BY THE START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AS A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS THE RESULT
OF THE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ON SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THIS
DECAYING LOW. A VERY POTENT JET STREAK WILL RE-INVIGORATE THIS
SURFACE LOW AND A NEW LOW CENTER DEVELOPS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
DECAYING LOW AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE A GALE FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING SEA AS WELL AS
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD START TO CHANGE SOME RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER...A SECOND JET STREAK
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE SATURDAY AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAX GALES AND POSSIBLY MINIMUM STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA AS A SECOND SHOT OF LOW
DEVELOPMENT COUPLES WITH A HEALTHY SWATH OF THE COLD AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MAJOR IMPACT MOVING OUT INTO THE LONG TERM IS THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY THE NAM
BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHERS. HOWEVER...THEY ALL AGREE ON
AN IMPACTFUL SNOW FROM THIS FRONT DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AREAS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHCENTRAL THAT ARE NOT RIGHT
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TOO
HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL COME UP WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR AREAS NORTH
OF CLAM GULCH EVEN THE PLACES THAT START OFF AS A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG BUT SHORT LIVED WINDS
THROUGHOUT MANY OF THE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED GAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS AROUND COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST AND IT WILL DIMINISH FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYS NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING COLD WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST
MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW BUT
THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH ITS INTENSITY. THIS BECOMES MUCH
MORE OF AN ISSUE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
RESULTING IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 131.
         GALE WARNING 132 136 137 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174
                      175 176 177 178 179 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK