Gale Warning 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

233 
FZAK51 PAFC 272349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281230-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN TO
WESTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ119-281230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-281230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 30 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ121-281230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-281230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-281230-
PORT VALDEZ-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING 
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-281230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-281230-
VALDEZ ARM-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-281230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT OR LESS. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER.
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-281230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-281230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ132-281230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-281230-
CHINIAK BAY-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ137-281230-
MARMOT BAY-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-281230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-281230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-281230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-281230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
249 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF WITH A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND EASTERN BERING SEA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CIRRUS CLOUDS
BEING ENTRAINED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MAINLAND. COLD AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS
PRODUCED WIDE SPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 40 TO 50 BELOW ACROSS THE
DELTA. LOCAL WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 40 BELOW WERE OBSERVED WITH
BRISK GAP FLOWS IN THOMPSON PASS.

AN 988 MB LOW CENTER WAS EVIDENT NORTH OF UNALASKA WITH THE
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AK PEN TO JUST WEST
OF KODIAK ISLAND. SNOW WAS EVIDENT IN ADVANCE OF THE THIS FRONT
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND EXTENDED EAST TO NEAR KODIAK. RAIN SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE AK PEN. BRISK WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE.
THE 12Z NAM WAS THE OUTLIER...HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE HEMISPHERIC MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN STORE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS/MORNINGS AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION WILL
BE THE MAIN DETERMINANTS AS TO HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...DECIDED
TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER TO MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD FORECAST FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT ANY BRIEF CLEARING AND/OR DECOUPLING OF WINDS IN
EXPOSED AREAS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID PLUNGE OF SEVERAL DEGREES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FOG
FORMATION AROUND ANCHORAGE AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AND
ALSO AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR THE NORTH GULF
COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT.

KODIAK AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW BUT WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN AS
WARMER AIR MOVES NORTH WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

WIND CHILLS REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA THIS EVENING AS WIND CHILLS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 35 BELOW TO
45 BELOW THRESHOLD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME GOOD NEWS AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 30 BELOW COME TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO USHER IN THE BITTERLY COLD CONTINENTAL
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS BUILT OVER THE INTERIOR. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME BITTERLY COLD WEATHER BUT
LUCKILY HAVE LIGHT WINDS WHICH IS PREVENTING WIND CHILLS FROM
BECOMING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NO EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE ZERO.

OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED AS RADAR REFLECTIVITIES ARE ALREADY
SHOWING DECENT SNOW MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF KING SALMON (INCLUDING DILLINGHAM AND KOLIGANEK) WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ZONE WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE...LARGELY FROM
DOWNSLOPING AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KING SALMON CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STRONG WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON WHICH
WILL ALLOW BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THAT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AS SNOW TAPERS OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP OBSERVED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT)...

A BROAD COMPLEX LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAKING A
SOUTHERN TURN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SITUATE ITSELF ACROSS THE BERING SEA. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE IN A "SWEET SPOT" AS
THEY CONTINUE TO SEE COLD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS PRECIPITATION WITH
THE DECAYING WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PERIOD
OF SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO CONTINUE.
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING...A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED AND CREATED GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS. THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAKENING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL
REMAIN IN A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STOUT
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING/WESTERN MAINLAND. WHERE THIS
FEATURE ULTIMATELY SETS UP WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN GULF...AND THUS HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE MAINLAND. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY
PRECIP WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MAINLY IMPACT AREAS FROM
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE GULF COAST...WITH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
AND BERING SEA REMAINING DRY AS PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155. SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 161
         BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 195.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 127 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 165 170
            172 173 175 176 177 179 185.
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 126 127 128 130 139 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CB