Gale Warning 867, NWS Anchorage, AK

075 
FZAK52 PAFC 050017
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051345-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB DEVELOPING LOW 350 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK TO 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 970 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL BECOME A BROAD COMPLEX LOW CENTERED 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 968 MB SUN AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ150-051345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051345-
BRISTOL BAY-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051345-
UNALASKA BAY-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
317 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 15 KT E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.ANALYSIS...
UPPER LEVELS TODAY SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
NORTHERN PACIFIC AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...THIS IS REFLECTED IN A LOW
COMPLEX MOVING SOUTH OF THE BERING AND A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY. WEST OF THE MAINLAND...THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SEVERAL TROUGHS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW COMPLEX. HOWEVER WITH A 175 KNOT JET
MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXPECT FUTURE LOW DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PARENT LOWS...HOWEVER THEY ARE
HAVING MUCH MORE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE SMALLER FEATURES. NAM
PICKED UP THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL
EARLIEST...AND HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND RESOLVING
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. THIS IS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING...SO
THE NAM IS A LOGICAL CHOICE FOR THE EAST SIDE. IN THE WEST...NAM
AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGHS
OFF OF THE MAIN LOW COMPLEX WHILE GFS WAS THE OUTLIER WITH THE
STRONGER SOLUTION. NAM/EC SOLUTION WAS THE CHOICE FOR THE WEST AS
WELL. IN THE SHORT TERM...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON TIMING
AND IMPACTS GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BANDS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW-STABILITY ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF SNOW. BECAUSE OF THE BANDING NATURE OF THE
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS FROM HOMER NORTH THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND NORTH THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY FROM VALDEZ NORTH TO THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE FORCING
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
TOWARD CORDOVA...RAIN IS LIKELY TO MIX WITH THE SNOW THUS LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA.

ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER UPPER WAVE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE DAY LATE
FRIDAY AND A THIRD ONE SATURDAY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FROM
KODIAK TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS FINALLY PUSHED
INTO THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING TO DISSIPATE. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TAPERED OFF TO
ZERO PERCENT AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO COASTAL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO RE-
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH A DECENT
INVERSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN (AS SEEN ON THE PABE RAOB). FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE INLAND AS A DECENT SFC GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS OF A NON-SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OR KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL EITHER
DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OR RESIDE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
AS THE CURRENT LOW IMPACTING THE ALEUTIANS IS DOING. THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE BERING SEA ARE CURRENTLY QUITE MESSY WITH LOTS OF
FRAGMENTS OF ENERGY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE IS A DEFORMATION BAND EXTENDING ACROSS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND A WEAKER LOW OVER THE
BERING STRAIT. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNDER A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUN THROUGH THU)...THE
LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A FAST MOVING NORTH PACIFIC
ZONAL JET KEEPING MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE
MAINLAND. MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HAVE A HARD TIME HANDLING THESE TYPES OF
PATTERNS. THEY STRUGGLE WITH WHERE EACH INDIVIDUAL LOW
DEVELOPS...WHICH ONE BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW...AND HOW STRONG
THAT DOMINANT LOW WILL BE. THUS...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...A FEW REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE WORKING THEIR
WAY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF. ANY ONE OF THESE COULD
BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL. BY
MONDAY...A MORE DEFINED LOW WILL WORK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND COULD BE ANOTHER SNOW MAKER...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST NEAR CORDOVA AND VALDEZ. MEANWHILE OVER THE
BERING...A BROAD TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA VULNERABLE TO
SHOWERS. BUT WITHOUT ANY ESPECIALLY STRONG FORCING...WE DON'T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BY TUE INTO WED...MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER CONSOLIDATED
LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN DEALING WITH THIS FEATURE.
FOR NOW WE HAVE BROUGHT THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN INTO THE
LOW 950 MB RANGE. THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST SOME GALE FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MARINERS BEFORE IT TRACKS TOWARD
SE AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...MO