Gale Warning 866, NWS Anchorage, AK

018 
FZAK52 PAFC 031204
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040045-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
 970 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA MOVES TO 585 NM S OF DUTCH
HARBOR BY FRI MORNING AS A 978 MB LOW DISSIPATES FRI AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE
CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES FRI
NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW 530 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU FRI AFTERNOON MOVES
400 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AS A 976 MB LOW BY SAT MORNING. A 981 MB
LOW FORMS 520 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK FRI NIGHT MOVES 300 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK AS A 973 MB LOW SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-040045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040045-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
N COAST.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE N
COAST.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-040045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040045-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 30 KT W OF AMCHITKA
PASS. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W
OF KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-040045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-040045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
REGION WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND
INTO THE LOWER COOK INLET THIS MORNING. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES
ARE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A 982 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
CHIRIKOF ISLANDS AND A 983 MB LOW EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT FROM THE 983 MB LOW EXTENDS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION INTO THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY COINCIDES
WITH SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
THE RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
MOVING INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...THE KENAI MOUNTAINS...THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SPREADING INTO THE MAT-SU REGION THIS MORNING.
THE SURFACE OBSERVATION AT THE ANCHORAGE AIRPORT IS REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW. WHILE OUT WEST...THERE IS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING SEA INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AT 500 MB THERE IS A CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF
SHEMYA WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT THE
SURFACE THIS IS REFLECTED WITH A STORM FORCE LOW NEAR 53N 171E
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS JUST WEST OF ADAK. THIS SYSTEM IS RECEIVING SUPPORT FROM
A STRONG 160 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY JET STREAM DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND AS IT GET PHASED IN WITH THE STRONGER NORTH
PACIFIC LOW NEAR 52N 143W THIS MORNING. BY THURSDAY THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THE ECMWF WAS THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE BERING THE NEXT
SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM/GFS MODELS
WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THE ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY EVENING THIS LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BECOMES A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AND BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS THIS SYSTEM
BECOMES COMPLEX.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK DEFORMATION AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN BASICALLY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN FINALLY DISSIPATE.
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT NO LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE SHOWERS A LITTLE MORE...BUT AS IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND IN FACT A RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THUS THE POPS FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAK OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MAINLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY...HOWEVER...AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST TODAY SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE DECREASING. THE DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY VERY CLOSE TO
ATTU. THE STORM FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING TODAY...MOVING TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WITH SEVERAL LOW CENTERS AND CIRCULATIONS.
ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM THE BERING STRAIT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

HEADED INTO THE MID-TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DOMINATED BY
LARGE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND 50N 165W.
THIS LOW...EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 980 MB...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ALONG 50N INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND DEEPEN TO THE MID-960 MB
RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST. THIS WILL BRING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
REGION...WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WITH SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
REGIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND FALL APART BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...FURTHER WEST...ENERGY FROM A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY EVENING WILL PUSH EAST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND DEEPEN TO ABOUT 960 MB SOUTH OF
ADAK BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS
FEATURE DECENT WITH FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC. A
SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THIS LOW AROUND 40N 170E ON SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS FEATURE...MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING THE LOW FURTHER TO THE
EAST AND MOVING IT FASTER EASTWARD. THE EC IS FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST BUT DEVELOPS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW /972 MB ON THE GFS
TO 968 MB ON THE EC/ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT...MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. BOTH MODELS BASICALLY OPEN THE FIRST
LOW INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH THE
BACKSIDE LOW BECOMING THE DOMINATE LOW OVER THE THE NORTH PACIFIC
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE EC AND GFS CREATE A DEEP LOW IN
THE MID 950 MB RANGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND 45N WITH
THE GFS A FASTER AND MORE EASTERN SOLUTION. GOING INTO DAY
7...MODELS BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE LOW INTO THE UPPER 940S BEFORE
PUSHING THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
PRESSURE AROUND 950 MB BY EARLY ON DAY 7.

WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON DAY 3...THE GFS WAS USED
FOR UPDATES. WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...WHICH
WAS BASED HEAVILY ON 00Z GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7
TO KEEP DETAILS VERY GENERALIZED IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
POINT WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178
 		 GALE WARNING 173 174 175 176 177
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...RF