Gale Warning 865, NWS Anchorage, AK

150 
FZAK52 PAFC 021148
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030115-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 966 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 670 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AS A 984 MB LOW FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATES. A 981
MB LOW FORMS 270 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THU MORNING AND MOVES TO
550 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AS A 975 MB LOW FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT PUSHES FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-030115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-030115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-030115-
BRISTOL BAY-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-030115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-030115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-030115-
UNALASKA BAY-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-030115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-030115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-030115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-030115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-030115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-030115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...26 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-030115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-030115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-030115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-030115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-030115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
248 AM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. S OF SAINT
MATTHEW...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

592 
FZAK52 PAFC 030024
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031315-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... 
A 962 MB LOW 85 NM WEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 380 NM WEST OF ADAK AS A
969 MB LOW THUR MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES TO 350 NM SOUTH OF
ADAK AS A 974 MB BY THUR EVENING AND DISSIPATES A SECONDARY LOW
WILL FORM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AS A 979 MB LOW BY FRI MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE
CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-031315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-031315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-031315-
BRISTOL BAY-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-031315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT DIMINISHING...BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-031315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-031315-
UNALASKA BAY-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-031315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-031315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-031315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-031315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS
9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ176-031315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-031315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PAC SIDE.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PAC SIDE.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ178-031315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-031315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-031315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-031315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-031315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
324 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NE 30 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W
OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

018 
FZAK52 PAFC 031204
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040045-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
 970 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA MOVES TO 585 NM S OF DUTCH
HARBOR BY FRI MORNING AS A 978 MB LOW DISSIPATES FRI AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE
CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES FRI
NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW 530 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU FRI AFTERNOON MOVES
400 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA AS A 976 MB LOW BY SAT MORNING. A 981 MB
LOW FORMS 520 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK FRI NIGHT MOVES 300 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK AS A 973 MB LOW SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-040045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040045-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
N COAST.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE N
COAST.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-040045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040045-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 30 KT W OF AMCHITKA
PASS. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...24 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W
OF KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
KUSKOKWIM BAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-040045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-040045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 AM AKST THU DEC 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF ALASKA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING OVER THE
WEEKEND THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
EXTREME NORTH PACIFIC. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH
IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS IS
BEGINNING TO COME INTO TO PICTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WHERE IT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER
NOTABLE FEATURE WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA IS A DEVELOPING
WAVE NEAR 40N ASSOCIATED WITH HUNDREDS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS
WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF TODAY AS IT
INTENSIFIES...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND
SOUTH MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD IN THE EARLY TERM...BUT
THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS TWO DEVELOPING SYSTEMS
MOVE INTO THE GULF AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTH GULF THIS AFTERNOON...SO THERE IS NOW GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF WILL FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS
EVENING WITH BETTER AGREEMENT FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE FROM THIS LOW COMES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MAKES LANDFALL IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BRINGING A BRIEF CHANCE
OF SNOW TO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL SOME SNOWFALL FROM
REACHING LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THERE STILL HOWEVER REMAIN SMALL DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARDS TO BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY...BUT WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO OVER EASTERN RUSSIA THE DEEPER EC/GFS
SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL SLIDE INLAND OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER CHANCES INLAND. AS THE
LOW/UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVER ANCHORAGE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE A
SOME SNOWFALL...AND PROBABILITIES WERE RAISED TO "LIKELY". SNOW
AMOUNTS (IF ANY) IN THE ANCHORAGE THROUGH MATANUSKA AREAS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY WEST. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FALL APART.
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE DYNAMICAL
HELP THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAINLAND LIES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE GREATER
BRISTOL BAY AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AN UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
COASTAL AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF SEASONABLE WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH KEEPING COLD AIR FLOWING FROM THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM DUTCH HARBOR TO COLD BAY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN TODAY. STEADY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES.
BEHIND THAT FRONT...A COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING A SHOWERY REGIME TO
MUCH OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MORE IMPACTFUL
FEATURE IS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING BRINGING SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA WITH A DEEP WARM SECLUSION CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER THE
EASTERN BERING WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. INLAND
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING
WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IMPACTING THE COAST. WITH
TIME...THE DEEP BERING CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST AND TAP THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH A DEEP LOW FORMING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF THE
IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE MARINE WATERS AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP INLAND
LOCATIONS LARGELY DRY. THEREAFTER...THE NORTH PACIFIC JET BECOMES
HIGHLY ACTIVE AND VOLATILE...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF ENERGY
IMPACTING THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO THE PANHANDLE OF
ALASKA...KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKER LOWS
EJECTING OF THE STRONG JET STREAM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR A GENERAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SIGNATURE WITH PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO FAR AWAY FROM NORMAL EVEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW. BY EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE HINTS THAT A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL INTERACT
WITH THE COLD ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA...ADVECTING COLDER
AIR INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY MIDWEEK...AND POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED
SNOW CHANCES AS WELL. HOWEVER...FOR THE TIME BEING...STORMINESS
WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS INLAND
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 178
 		 GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 139 155 165 170 171 172
					  175 176 177 179

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...JA