Gale Warning 844, NWS Anchorage, AK

877 
FZAK61 PAFC 181252
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190200-
352 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A FRONT
ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
FRONT NEAR 58N 153W LATE FRI NIGHT AND MOVES TO 59N 145W SUN
MORNING AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ351-190200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
352 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND UP TO 10 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
352 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

365 
FZAK61 PAFC 190010
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191400-
310 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 968 MB LOW FORMS 58N 152W FRI NIGHT THEN MOVES TO 60N 146W AS A
977 MB LOW BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKAN COAST BY
SUN MORNING AND ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT.

$$

960 
FZAK61 PAFC 191228
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200245-
328 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR 58N 152W MOVES TO 59N 148W AT 974 MB LATE SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 149W AT 978 MB SUN MORNING AND
DISSIPATES. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ351-200245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
328 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
328 AM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT.

$$

321 
FZAK61 PAFC 200002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201415-
302 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 969 MB LOW NEAR 57N 149W MOVES TO 51N 136W AND WEAKENS TO 981 MB 
MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA TO THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ351-201415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT N 10 TO 25 KT E OF 147W.
SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

398 
FZAK61 PAFC 201207
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210230-
307 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 57N 144W MOVES INLAND NEAR 57N 136W AT 986 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 979 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 55N 161W MON MORNING AND
MOVES TO 55N 150W TUE MORNING AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ351-210230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
307 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-210230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
307 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 27 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
543 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF AK THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG RIDGES OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
AND THE BERING SEA...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER KAMCHATKA. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW IS SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STORM FORCE FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST...AND A
SECOND LOW IS GAINING STRENGTH JUST OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
IN THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING. ITS ASSOCIATED STORM FORCE FRONT IS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
THE BERING. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW STREAMING BETWEEN THE BERING RIDGE
AND THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK IS SPREADING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE LOW AND FRONT IN THE
GULF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM LAND THROUGH FRI. THE
BERING RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE AKPEN TODAY AND THEN THE
GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND WESTERN BERING FRONT
THEN FOLLOW SUIT...WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AK FRI AND
FRI NIGHT...AND THE LOW ITSELF REACHING THE EASTERN BERING IN THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS
OVER THE GULF FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...DRYING CONDITIONS
CROSSING MAINLAND AK AND THE GULF BEFORE THE WEEKEND...AND A STORM
FORCE LOW AND FRONT TRANSITING THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND HAS BEEN SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST...AND
HAS BEEN SUPPORTING STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO AUGUSTINE
ISLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALSO CREATED A FAVORABLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR GUSTS TO OCCUR ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY...WEST ANCHORAGE...AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
CONTINUES TO THE EAST.

BY FRIDAY EVENING...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND A
TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING
STEADY RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LARGE LOW IN THE GULF SHIFTS EAST. THE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA AND A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILD OVER
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LARGE BERING LOW. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THEN PUSH INLAND BRINGING SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE FAR WESTERN BERING CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING. THIS FRONT WILL
TRACK EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT REACHING THE WESTERN MAINLAND FRIDAY
MORNING. THE PARENT LOW WILL FOLLOW MORE SLOWLY REACHING THE
CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE SOUTHERLIES WILL FOLLOW
THE INITIAL FRONT EAST WITH A BROADER AREA OF WESTERLY STORMS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION TO THE GULF WITH SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL GULF. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT LOCATION IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
ACCOMPANYING JET STREAM. SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING
THE LARGER POPULATION CENTERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
NORTH TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...AS WELL AS ANY SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE PUSH PROVIDED BY
POTENTIAL JET DEVELOPMENT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE NEGATIVE-
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN SNOW CHANCES
FOR ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE OVER THE BERING A SURFACE FRONT WILL ELONGATE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COLD
ADVECTION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING.

BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (BY DECEMBER STANDARDS) TO MOST AREAS THAT MAY
PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...GALE 130 131 132 138 139 141 155 165 170-172 180 181.
         STORM 119 120 150 173-179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...CC