Gale Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

844 
FZAK61 PAFC 061211
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
311 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENS. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
311 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
311 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND EXTENDS
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THIS IS RESULTING IN PREDOMINATELY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THAT IS KEEPING THINGS COLD
AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THESE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG. OUT WEST A WEAK FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING IS BEING STALLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. BY TUESDAY EVENING SOME DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP WITH A
WEAK LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC IS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION BUT IS ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY AS THE GFS AND
NAM. MEANWHILE...THE GEM IS 8 MB DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
WITH THIS LOW. MOVING FURTHER IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR FEATURES BUT STRUGGLE
WITH THE SMALLER LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT OVER UPPER COOK INLET...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING AREAS NEAR KNIK ARM. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HELPING TO
PIN THIS MOISTURE AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
WEAKEN A BIT TODAY AS THE CLOSED HIGH DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA TODAY. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE AGAIN TONIGHT...A WEAKER
INVERSION MAY KEEP IT FROM BEING QUITE AS DENSE. SIMILARLY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM HAS SWITCHED AND BECOME
LIGHT EASTERLY...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PUSH ANY CONTINUING FOG
OR LOW STRATUS TOWARD FIRE ISLAND AND WESTERN COOK INLET RATHER
THAN ANCHORAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MORE CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
CLOUDS SLOWLY START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AROUND THOMPSON PASS AND THE VALDEZ AREA WHERE COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO DRAIN OUT OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. EVEN THOUGH COLD ADVECTION HAS LARGELY COME TO AN
END...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS A FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE VALDEZ GAP
WINDS BLOWING WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH...RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE DECAYING FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE THIS WILL
BE A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN...IT SHOULD NOT BE A HUGE
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE ISLAND AS ATMOSPHERIC FORCING WILL BE
QUITE WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. AS THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AKPEN...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MODERATE WIND CHILLS TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHANGE
THROUGH TUE. BRIEF DRYING TODAY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AS THE NORTH PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
NORTH. IN THE WEST THE REMAINS OF THE DECAYING FRONT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH A BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN ISLANDS
ON TUE WITH WIND...RAIN...AND SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO BRING A RETURN OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF...AS WELL AS RAIN STRETCHING FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO BRISTOL
BAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SINCE YESTERDAY...ALLOWING THE GULF COAST TO REMAIN LARGELY
DRY UNTIL THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE GULF ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY FOR
COASTAL AREAS) THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SLOWLY ROUND OVER THE
LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK...BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GOING TO REVOLVE AROUND
THAT SAME BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG IT REMAINS AS IT
PROPAGATES BACK OVER THE MAINLAND AND THE CANADIAN YUKON THIS
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE VERY EAGER TO WEAKEN
THIS BLOCK WHICH USUALLY IS NOT THE CASE. THERE WILL BE SOME
SEMBLANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WESTERN
GULF. HOW THIS AREA INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANT OF THE THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTROL THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT
THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS LIKE THE GULF SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WARMER
AIR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AND BREAK THE SHORT
LIVED PERIOD OF CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS AROUND THE SOUTH
MAINLAND

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...DEK