Gale Warning 735, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 1, 2015, 3:07 PM AKST (00:07 UTC)

Expired

Nov 2, 2015, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

092 
FZAK51 PAFC 020007
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021300-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WELL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF MON AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES EAST TO NEAR NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AT 989 MB LATE MON
NIGHT. THIS CENTER THEN MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT AT 990
MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-021300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG
THE COAST...EAST WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021300-
PORT VALDEZ-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021300-
VALDEZ ARM-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021300-
CHINIAK BAY-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021300-
MARMOT BAY-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
307 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 1, 5:44 AM AKST, 9 hours 23 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
544 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW SYSTEM SPANS FROM EASTERN
RUSSIA THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHILE A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE MOVES INTO CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE BERING CYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW IS QUICKLY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
AND INTO THE WESTERN MAINLAND. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS IT TRACKS
EAST. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE
RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ARE SUPPORTING SOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THE ALASKA RANGE EAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG FAVORABLE
GAPS IN THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ARE
SUBSIDING AS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THROUGH THE MID TERM.
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE TRACK OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOWARDS THE GULF
MON AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...TRACKING THE
SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY. THE
GEM...WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND...IS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WAS THE MIDDLE GROUND
NAM/EC BLEND...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF MON NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES COVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW BY
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
APPROACHING FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN
ADDITION...WITH WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT. AS A RESULT...MODERATE SNOWFALL SHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR A FEW QUICK INCHES OF SNOW...JUST BEFORE
THE START OF THE MONDAY COMMUTE. SEE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND MON)...
THE NORTH/SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ONSHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN. LINGERING COLD AIR IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
NORTH/EAST GREATER BRISTOL BAY WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION STAYING
AS SNOW FOR A BIT LONGER THOUGH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT BY THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LINGERING RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN
RANGES. AN ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN MOST OF THE MAINLAND LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON MONDAY...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW FLAKES AT TIMES...TO THE GREATER
BRISTOL BAY AREA.

BEHIND THE ORIGINAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY A LONG FETCH OF GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BRING HIGH SEAS AND COASTAL STORM SURGE TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS WITH A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE EASTERN BERING TODAY
LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN AN UNSTABLE AND GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. A QUICK AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING A QUICK SHOW OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...LATE MON THROUGH FRI)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON AS A SERIES OF
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FIRST STORM OF NOTE BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
ENHANCED TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE JET DYNAMICS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD QUICKLY SPIN A DECENT SURFACE LOW
UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WHICH SHOULD DRIVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL AS RAIN BUT THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIALLY SEE SNOW AS
THE VALLEY TRAPS IN SOME COLDER AIR AND IT TAKES A WHILE TO BE
DISPLACED. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY
MORNING AND LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SNOWFALL EVENT WILL UNFOLD FOR
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. INITIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE DOWNSLOPING WILL
KEEP THE NORMAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPS
THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A QUICK
COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEYS.
OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO GARNER A FAIR ESTIMATE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SPIN UP SOUTH OF SHEMYA. NOW THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE THROUGH MODEL DATA AS A SPLIT JET
MERGES TWO JET STREAKS TOGETHER AND DEVELOPS A VERY DEEP LOW OVER
A SHORT DURATION (RAPID CYCLOGENESIS). THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE LOW APPROACHES. IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...WIDESPREAD GALES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE ALEUTIANS. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
BUT MAY IMPACT SOUTH OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE TRACK OF
THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL WHEN IT COMES TO FORECASTING WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN (SNOW OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY) LOOKS
POSSIBLE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH A LARGE TAP
INTO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...THIS LOW
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO PUSH INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH COULD CREATE SOME STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING
DAYS BUT IT SEEMS A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS UPON US.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 172 175 177 178 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...MC

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.