Gale Warning 729, NWS Anchorage, AK

698 
FZAK62 PAFC 281247 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290300-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES TO
NEAR 63N 175W AS IT WEAKENS TO 985 MB LATE TONIGHT. A 967 MB LOW
NEAR 49N 164E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 53N 160W AS IT WEAKENS TO 976 MB
LATE SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N
OF 56N...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

782 
FZAK62 PAFC 290000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291430-
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW AT 50N 173E MOVES TO 54N 160W BY MON AFTERNOON AS A 974
MB LOW. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MON AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 62N 170W
MOVES TO 63N 177W AS A 990 MB LOW BY SUN AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATES SUN
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-291430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-291430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-291430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-291430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

563 
FZAK62 PAFC 291249
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300245-
349 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 MB LOW NEAR 50N 176W MOVES TO 55N 159W AT 975 MB LATE SUN
NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 54N 153W AT 976 MB LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-300245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
409 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING
NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY ROTATING INTO THE MAIN UPPER
CENTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS
UNDERNEATH THE ALASKA PENINSULA UPPER LOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
IN BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT HAS PUSHED IN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST OVERNIGHT AND THE
MOIST WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE MAINLAND. TROUGHING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE COUPLED WITH THE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRIVING THE STRONG WINDS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL CROSS
BARRIER FLOW PRECIPITATION SHADOW ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND
UPSLOPE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. COLDER AIR
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA LOW AS EVIDENT IN SHOWERY WEATHER SEEN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL RACE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY MON MORNING IS HANDLED WELL BY ALL MODELS AND
AGREEMENT IS GOOD BETWEEN THE MODELS. THIS ALLOWS US TO CONTINUE
TO USE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE DIGITAL FORECAST
PREPARATION TO BETTER CAPTURE THE DETAILS OF THE STRONG GAP WIND
AND THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN OF THE NEXT COUPLE IS REVEALING ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LAST MAJOR FRONT/SHORTWAVE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD INTO THE INTERIOR. THE COLDEST AIR IN THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONVECTIVE SHOWERY PATTERN. THERE IS A LACK OF DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO FOCUS ANY RELEASE OF INSTABILITY. THUS...MOST OF THE
STEADY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST IN UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE COOK INLET REGION BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH.
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN IN THESE SHOWERS BUT
A HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW. WIND WILL TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF FROM MODERATE VALUES IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING WILL BRING MULTIPLE WAVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING CHANCES FOR SNOW
AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOMING COOLER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST LIFTS TO THE
NORTH ALLOWING A COLDER AIR MASS TO FILTER IN ALONG WESTERLY FLOW.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE THE ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY GALE WINDS ACROSS THE
MARINES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING. THE
NEXT LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE ISLANDS...REACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AIR MASS AND GUSTY GALE
WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CHAIN DURING THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY AND THEN STALL
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES DUTCH HARBOR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY EVENING...A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING SEA WILL BE MAKING SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS...WITH A DEPARTING AND WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED BERING FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN MERGE
WITH A PREEXISTING CUTOFF LOW NEAR HAIDA GWAII. THE FRONT WILL
REACH GALE FORCE IS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS
IT MERGES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HAIDA GWAII LOW AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS RATHER COMMON SEMI-PERMANENT
BERING LOW REGIME WILL FAVOR SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE GULF...WITH THE BULK OF COLD AIR REMAINING OVER
THE BERING SEA...WHICH IN ITSELF TENDS TO ENHANCE THE NORTH
PACIFIC POLAR JET STREAM. SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAKER LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE
GULF...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING A RATHER
DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS INLAND LOCALES.
THE FIRST LARGE BERING LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN BY LATE
WEEK...ONLY TO BE REPLACED AGAIN BY ANOTHER LARGE BERING LOW AS
THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS THE STOUT NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE (THE
CURRENT SOURCE FOR THE VERY WARM PATTERN IN PLACE NOW) DEAMPLIFIES
AND WEAKENS. WHAT THIS MEANS...IMPACT WISE...IS THERE WILL NOT BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OR SIGNIFICANT INLAND
STORMS...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATION OF THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND INLAND
IMPACTS...AND MODERATELY HIGH REGARDING WEAK LOWS ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER TROUGH AS THEY TREK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT UNTIL LATE WEEK.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA