Gale Warning 701, NWS Anchorage, AK

565 
FZAK62 PAFC 090002
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091400-
302 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 960 MB LOW AT 62N 175W MOVES
TO 65N 167W AT 962 MB MON MORNING...THEN MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 47N 162E MOVES TO 50N 173E AT 994
MB TUE MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 53N 176W AT 979 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
302 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
302 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-091400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
302 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 30 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 21 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

550 
FZAK62 PAFC 091211
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100230-
311 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 MB LOW NEAR 64N 168W MOVES TO 65N 165W AT 975 MB LATE MON
NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT IN
THE NORTHERN BERING MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA MON
EVENING...THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA MON NIGHT. A 995 MB
LOW NEAR 50N 171E MON NIGHT MOVES TO 56N 166W AT 959 MB LATE TUE
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-100230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-100230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-100230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W OF 176W...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N 35 TO 50 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. E OF 176W...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 40
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ414-100230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

102 
FZAK62 PAFC 100005
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101500-
305 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 MB LOW NEAR 64N 168W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER
THE SEWARD PENINSULA MON EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWING
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ALASKA MON NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW AT 51N 174E WILL MOVE TO
57N 159W AS A 956 MB LOW THEN ONSHORE WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57 N.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 TO 35 KT BY MIDDAY.
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
N OF 57N.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ413-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE 35 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ414-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NE 45 TO 60 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

330 
FZAK62 PAFC 101204
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-110245-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174E WILL MOVE TO 56N 165W AT 958 MB TONIGHT
THEN TO 56N 156W AT 961 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-110245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-110245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-110245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N 50 TO 65 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF 177W...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 TO 65 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 30 TO
45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF 176W...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NW
55 TO 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-110245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
304 AM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 169W. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 45 TO 60 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING NW 30 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 110027
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111500-
327 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 51N 173E STRENGTHENS TO 967 MB AS IT MOVES TO
55N 165W BY WED MORNING BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE LOW EMERGES AROUND 56N 160W AT 964 MB WED AFTERNOON AND
MOVES TO 59N 141W AS A 962 MB LOW THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
327 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015


.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
327 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
327 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
327 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 40 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING NW 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATLAND...WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING WITH
WINDS OF GREATER THAN 160 KTS. THIS JET IS HELPING TO DRIVE THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF
KAMCHATKA. IN ADDITION...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS LOW IS INCREASING THE BAROCLINICITY OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
CURRENTLY THE LOW IS ONLY AT 993 MB...IT IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MEANWHILE...IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WITH LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GREAT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT...BUT DISAGREE AT A
MORE MESOSCALE LEVEL ON GAP WIND DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE GREATEST DISCREPANCY APPEARS
TO BE HOW INTENSE THE DOWNSLOPING WILL BE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...WHICH COULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME MINOR DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS...GENERALLY DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO BE AT A
MINIMUM AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RAPIDLY GIVE WAY
TO A POTENT FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY ENTER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
GREATER ANCHORAGE AREA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BEFORE QUICKLY
MOVING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE OVER TURNAGAIN ARM TOMORROW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND
DIMINISH AS RAPIDLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
WITH ALL SNOW FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL NORTHWARD. PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
RAIN AT THE SURFACE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HARD
TO NAIL DOWN DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE STRONG NATURE OF THE FRONT...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW EVENING. THEREFORE SEVERAL WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY.

WITH THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...THE REGION WILL STAY IN A SHOWERY
PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. IT WILL UNFOLD IN TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE
IS A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL MERGE
WITH A LOW THAT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THE
LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT AND ALL THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUN. IT WILL ALSO BRING A SLUG OF
WARM AIR INTO THE MAINLAND AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. SO WHILE A FEW OF
THE MORE INLAND VALLEYS COULD HOLD ON TO SNOW FOR THE START OF THE
EVENT...EVERYONE SHOULD TURN OVER TO RAIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...RAIN WILL TURN
BACK OVER TO SNOW AND SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORSE ALONG THE YK-DELTA COAST STARTING LATE
SUN EVENING OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE
BLOWING SNOW CRITERIA. BUT IF SOME COLDER AIR WERE TO MAKE IT A
BIT EARLIER AND SNOW TO FALL A BIT HEAVIER...AN ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS FRONT SHOULD PEAK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SOME OF ITS ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO THE
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THAT SAID...THOSE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WORK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR. AFTER THAT...ALL EYES TURN TO THE LOW NEAR ST
LAWRENCE. MODELS NOW SHOW THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTO THE
LOW 950MB-RANGE. ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW...IT WILL HAVE
AMPLE COLD AIR TO PULL INTO THE BERING FROM RUSSIA. THIS SHOULD
CREATE WIDESPREAD STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING. IT
WILL ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SNOW TO START TO MIX IN ACROSS JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS BANDED PRECIPITATION SETS UP
UNDER LONG-FETCH WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY WHICH WILL KEEP COLD WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. TUESDAY MORNING A LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING IN
FROM RUSSIA. THIS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT TRACKS
EAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS
FOR THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS IT TRACKS EAST AND MAKES
IT INTO THE GULF THURSDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC....WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW 145.
          WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW 101 111.
          HIGH SURF ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 174 176 179 181 185.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 125 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170
                      172 173 175 177 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...DK