Gale Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

113 
FZAK61 PAFC 050013
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-051515-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-051515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-051515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

802 
FZAK61 PAFC 051251
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-060215-
351 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS EVENING THEN TO
THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-060215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
351 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-060215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
351 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE MAINLAND CONTINUES TO HOLD THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING/EAST ALEUTIANS AT
BAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING SW
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF PRODUCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
KENAI PEN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FELL FROM ABOVE ZERO TO THE MINUS TEENS ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE SKIES CLEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST.
GUSTY GAP WINDS WERE EVIDENT OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND
THOMPSON PASS. OUT WEST...BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. LITTLE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MODELS ARE REASONABLE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE
MAINLAND AND THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON LOW CENTER WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS MOVED THE LOW CENTER FURTHER NORTH AND AS
A RESULT BROUGHT EASTERLY GALES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. THE 12Z RUN
HOWEVER BACKED OFF ON THIS SOLUTION AND CAME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE SOUTHERN LOW POSITION INDICATED IN THE ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK UPPER LOW TRANSITING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS WILL ACT TO CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE LINGERING
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS
BY THIS EVENING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH
IMPACTING THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL KEEP
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WIDE
SPREAD CLEARING IS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
AND CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...USHERING IN A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS TO MOST
AREAS.

GAP WINDS AROUND THE GULF COAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR
DOWN TREND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOMPSON PASS AND THE VALDEZ
AREA WHERE DENSE ARCTIC AIR FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEED OUT FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE LOW
END OF MODERATE BY RELATIVE STANDARDS (FOR THE WINTER MONTHS).

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO MEAN
NORTHERLY FLOW WARMING OFF THE ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL STEEPEN
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS AROUND THE AREA. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG KNIK ARM/COOK INLET/ANCHORAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. AT THIS POINT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
CONSIDERED UNLIKELY BASED ON A CONTINUED FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE REASONABLY WELL
MIXED. SIMILARLY ...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO COME FROM THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD ALSO HINDER FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN UPCOMING FORECAST CYCLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND WITH A WEAKENING NORTH TO SOUTH
RUNNING FRONT OVER THE BERING WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OFFSHORE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN BUILDING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
STRENGTHEN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...AM
EXPECTING TO SEE FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORMING UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN
LOCATIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND UNDER THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL WHERE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTH.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE INCREASING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CUT BACK ON ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE
LOW OUT NEAR 60N 164E FILLS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTH AND
INLAND. THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SUNDAY BUT WILL BE FILLING AS IT DOES SO...SO THINK GALES SHOULD
BE THE MAX WINDS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE LOW
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE OFFSHORE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL IN SYNC STARTING THIS PERIOD WITH A
CLOSED BLOCKING HIGH DOMINATING MOST OF THE MAINLAND. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE SETTLED ON THE LOCATION OF THAT HIGH TO BE JUST NORTH OF
THE BERING STRAIT OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. WITH THE HIGH SETTING UP
THERE IT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO
"SNEAK" AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. WHILE
CLEAR AND DRY WILL STILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME...THIS "INSIDE
SLIDER" SHOULD PROVIDE BOTH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND AN
ADDITIONAL BOOST TO THE OUTFLOW GAP WINDS. SO HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH THE COLDEST AIR INFILTRATING OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. WE ALSO INCREASED WINDS LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES QUICKLY FROM
THE COPPER BASIN TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO HELP MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER ELEVATED
WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED AREAS LIKE THOMPSON PASS AND
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.

FOR THE WEST AND BERING SEA...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OFFSHORE FLOW STANDS TO REALLY ONLY INCREASE
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA AS COLDER AIR AND HIGHER
PRESSURE SETTLE OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER THE WESTERN BERING...A
WEAK FRONT AND DECAYING LOW WILL KEEP SOME WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE IN REALLY QUIET THINGS DOWN.

THE EVOLUTION OF THAT "SLIDER" ON WEDNESDAY IGNITES THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES THAT DEVELOP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EC IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW MORE OF A STRETCHED
OUT SHEAR AXIS. THEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC START TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WELL. THE "SLIDER" DOES DISRUPT THE BLOCKING PATTERN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENERGY AND THE SURFACE LOW TO START TO SLIDE
NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...OPTED
TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LEAVING
LIKELY POPS JUST SKIRTING FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE AKPEN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 174 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...MSO