Gale Warning 69, NWS Anchorage, AK

243 
FZAK52 PAFC 162351
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171230-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW AT CAPE NEWENHAM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND BE WELL
INLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 994 MB LOW AT SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SW WIND 20
KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171230-
BRISTOL BAY-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171230-
UNALASKA BAY-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 15 KT BERING SIDE.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT PACIFIC SIDE...E WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 PM AKST THU JAN 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW LOOKS VERY SIMILAR THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME CHANGES AFOOT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA. OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE...THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS
DRIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALL THE WAY EASTWARD TO THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...CAUSING THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. AS A RESULT THE STORM TRACK IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGING AN END TO THE
CONSTANT SUPPLY OF TROPICAL AIR TO MAINLAND ALASKA.

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF DEEP LOWS AFFECTING THE REGION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH
AN OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN GULF COAST DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW CENTER ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA...BUT THE PRECIP ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST IS BY FAR THE HEAVIEST.

THERE IS MARGINALLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS INDICATED
BY THE CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTIC OF CLOUDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS ADVECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC (NEAR 40N 170W).
ALL OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR
MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP WILL ALSO AID IN
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THIS COOLING WILL NOT COMPLETELY ERODE THE
LOW LEVEL ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE...SO THE THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT QUITE YET OVER.

ONE LAST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND EASTERN SIBERIA...BRINGING WITH IT A
DEEP POLAR AIR MASS. WITH NOTHING TO STOP THIS TROUGH FROM
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTHWARD...A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES IS
IN STORE FOR THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF RUSSIAN ARCTIC INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE LOWERING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MEANWHILE MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS LARGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THESE LOWS WILL BE WEAK
AND FAST MOVING... THUS THE REASON THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING. MOST
OF THE SOLUTIONS DO NOW INDICATE A LOW CROSSING THE GULF ON FRIDAY
AND MOVING ONSHORE OF SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY EVENING. WILL USE THE
12Z ECMWF/12Z GEM-REG WHICH PROVIDE A NICE MIDDLE GROUND ON THE
SPEED OF THIS LOW. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE LOWS AS
WELL AS TRACK OF FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW FROM THE GULF TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE A STEADY SUPPLY OF PRECIP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT IT IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TO IDENTIFY THE TIMING
AND DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL KEEP GENERALLY WET
AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND
AREAS STAYING MORE SHOWERY. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER NIGHT FROM ANCHORAGE INTO THE MAT-SU WITH
A PERSISTENT WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WILL BE
RELATIVELY MINIMAL AS PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIMITED TO SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING.
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD FINALLY START TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPING PLACES ON THE LEEWARD
SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE LARGELY ON THE DRY SIDE. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS PARKED
ITSELF OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FORECAST IS MUCH MORE
COMPLICATED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS
FREEZING RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN A CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS EVENING AND LIKELY FALL AS
FREEZING RAIN DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT NOTED BY THE
00Z PABE RAOB. THE MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM BETHEL TO SLEETMUTE...WITH AREAS EAST
OF SLEETMUTE BEING LARGELY DOWNSLOPED FROM THE ALASKA RANGE. THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE DELTA.

THIS MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL HELP TRANSITION THE FREEZING RAIN OVER THE BETHEL AREA TO
SNOW. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL END
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL BRING A BLAST OF SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STOUT NORTHERLY WIND OF 10 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ORIGINATING OVER SIBERIA HAS PUSHED INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS. THE COLDER AIR
MASS WILL CREATE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF THIS AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO 32
DEGREES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE NORTH OF 58N AS GALE FORCE WINDS MIX
WITH COLDER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WESTERN COAST FOR THIS WEEKEND
MOVES INLAND BY LATE SATURDAY...IT WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER LOW
THAT WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ALSO PREVENT MUCH
OF THE COLD AIR FROM CROSSING THE ALASKA RANGE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPLY ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA.

THE BAD NEWS FOR WINTER LOVERS IS THAT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS COOLER WEATHER WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
WARM AND MOIST NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RETURN CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BACK TO THE PATTERN OF THE LAST WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING RAIN FOR INLAND
AREAS THAT LOOKS TO LAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 179 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...DEK