Gale Warning 680, NWS Anchorage, AK

661 
FZAK51 PAFC 272325
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-281230-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 984 MB LOW 430 NM SOUTH OF AKHIOK WED NIGHT MOVES TO 240 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE SPENCER AS A 974 MB LOW BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-281230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-281230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-281230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING...NEAR
CAINES HEAD. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-281230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-281230-
PORT VALDEZ-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-281230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-281230-
VALDEZ ARM-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-281230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-281230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-281230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-281230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-281230-
CHINIAK BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-281230-
MARMOT BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-281230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-281230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-281230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-281230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
325 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
MAINLAND. TO THE WEST...A SECOND CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING SOUTH OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE SPINNING IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY PUSHING A RIDGE OVER THE BERING TO THE NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE...RAIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH
LIGHTER RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. RAIN ALSO CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING. WINDS
ARE GUSTY ALONG THE TWO SURFACE LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CENTERS. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS INCREASED
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AND ARE
RAMPING UP ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND WESTERN GULF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG EAST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
ARE BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON CHAMPI IS
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS IT CONTINUES ON AN
EASTERN TRACK...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND CURRENTLY IS
LOW IMPACT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GENERALLY GOOD WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED OVERALL FOR ITS
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH ON THE TWO EVOLVING
SYSTEMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR LOCAL WIND ADJUSTMENTS THE USE OF
THE ECMWF WAS USED ALONG THE EASTERN FORECAST ZONES WITH THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL AND NAM USED ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO KODIAK ISLAND.
WIND GUSTS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH LOCAL GAPS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT.
MEANWHILE...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF APPROACHES. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM LINGERS ALONG THE COAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN A WET AND WINDY PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL
STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM AND BRISTOL BAY COASTLINES WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD
TOWARDS KODIAK. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COAST WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR THE REGION AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN RUSSIAN COAST.
WITH THIS SETUP...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO UPPER GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EASTWARD AS THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
MOVES NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES PART OF A LARGE ELONGATED
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LONG FETCH OVER THE
BERING SEA WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS.

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WET FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN COAST
WILL START TO PUSH EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BENEATH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOWS SPANNING FROM THE MAINLAND TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THURSDAY...
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BERING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHARP ARCTIC TROUGH POISED TO DIG OVER
THE WESTERN MAINLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A
NORTH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH FINER DETAILS...BUT THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
PERIOD OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 138
         GALE 119 120 132 136 137 139
              150 160 177 178 179 180 181 185 GALE 351 352
              411 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB