Gale Warning 618, NWS Anchorage, AK

619 
FZAK52 PAFC 012306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021145-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
WEST OF GAMBELL FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN STATIONARY AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 1008 MB
BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 16 FT...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT W OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021145-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021145-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO
10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-021145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 40 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA JUST
WEST OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE IS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
SUCKLING. THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA...WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. A LARGE
UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HAS
A LEADING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS A STRONG FRONT PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS (50
KNOTS OR HIGHER).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST (FRIDAY AFTERNOON). THEY AGREE
DECENTLY WELL ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE BERING...BUT ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT LOCATIONS ON
THE CENTRAL LOW. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS DEFINITELY SLOWER AND
FURTHER EAST PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO BE 250 TO 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF POSITIONS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAINLY IMPACTS THE MARINE
FORECASTS FOR THE BERING SEA. OVER-ALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS LOCATED JUST
EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OFFSHORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERY REGIME BRIEFLY BEFORE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARRIVE THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE DOOR
OPENS UP AGAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN AND WILL RESULT IN MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL INTO
THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ALEUTIAN WARM FRONT. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ALASKA RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF TOWARD MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT OVER THE REST OF THE MAINLAND AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS BEGIN TO
CRANK UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE STRONG WIND RANGE...FOLLOWED BY
RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND GREATER BRISTOL BAY AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STEADY RAIN WILL BE
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR DIRECTLY OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMAIN KEEPING
PRECIPITATION STEADY...MAINLY OVER THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
MORE OF A SHOWERY PATTERN OVER THE REST OF THE MAINLAND. DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STORM FORCE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE BERING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF OF A MATURE KAMCHATKA SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY
EARLY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT MOVES ASHORE THE MAINLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON LEAVING THE BERING IN A SHOWERY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 4 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST ON SUNDAY...A RELATIVELY
ZONAL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE BERING AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA. AFTER A WET SATURDAY...DRYING WILL BE UNDERWAY SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
SATURDAYS RAINFALL MOVES EAST INTO CANADA. A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
BERING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISCREPANCY WITH HOW MUCH THE BERING TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND...AND HOW FAR EAST
PRECIPITATION MOVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER RUN BY RUN WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE
LOWER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A WPC APPROACH
WHICH FAVORS ENSEMBLE BLENDS WAS CONTINUED...WHICH KEEPS THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS ALASKA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR STORMS OR COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...STORM 170 173 174 175 176 177 179 181 185. GALE 155 160
165 171 172 178 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...JA