Gale Warning 58, NWS Anchorage, AK

458 
FZAK51 PAFC 131923 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140415-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 967 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL
BAY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN GULF LATE TUE NIGHT AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST WED
AFTERNOON. A 969 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED
EVENING WILL MOVE TO 375 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-140415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ120-140415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-140415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-140415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-140415-
PORT VALDEZ-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-140415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-140415-
VALDEZ ARM-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-140415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-140415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-140415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-140415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-140415-
CHINIAK BAY-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-140415-
MARMOT BAY-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-140415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-140415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-140415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1023 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

781 
FZAK51 PAFC 140021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141300-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 979 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL TRACK TO 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WED NIGHT AT 965 MB THEN WEAKEN ALONG 
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON THU. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THU.

$$

PKZ119-141300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40 KT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141300-
PORT VALDEZ-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141300-
VALDEZ ARM-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...STORM WARNING WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141300-
CHINIAK BAY-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141300-
MARMOT BAY-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
321 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

962 
FZAK51 PAFC 141229
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150100-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL TRACK TO 110 NM
SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WED NIGHT AT 960 MB AND THEN MOVE 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK AT 965 MB THU NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WED
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND
THU.

$$

PKZ119-150100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150100-
PORT VALDEZ-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150100-
VALDEZ ARM-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150100-
CHINIAK BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150100-
MARMOT BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2
FT.

$$

PKZ141-150100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
329 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

399 
FZAK51 PAFC 141611 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

UPDATED ZONES 130 AND 139

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150415-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL TRACK TO 110 NM
SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WED NIGHT AT 960 MB AND THEN MOVE 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK AT 965 MB THU NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WED
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND
THU.

$$

PKZ119-150415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150415-
PORT VALDEZ-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150415-
VALDEZ ARM-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150415-
CHINIAK BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150415-
MARMOT BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-150415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

351 
FZAK51 PAFC 150016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151345-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 961 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL TRACK TO BRISTOL
BAY THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. 
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THU THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-151345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151345-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151345-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151345-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151345-
MARMOT BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION...WITH
THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA ON THE "WARM"/EASTERLY SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE. AS SUCH...YET ANOTHER STORM AND SURGE OF WARM AIR IS
MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS TO KODIAK AND MUCH OF
THE REST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEATHER FRONT THAT IS PUSHING TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND NORTH GULF COAST. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
COASTAL LOCATIONS...EVEN REACHING 50 AROUND KACHEMAK BAY.
RELATIVELY COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF
INTERIOR ALASKA...WHICH WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AND REPRESENTS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUT WEST...GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY AT MOST LOCATIONS. BELOW-
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER KUSKO VALLEY
AND THE DELTA...WHILE MOST OF BRISTOL BAY IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

WAY OUT WEST...A VERTICALLY STACKED AND WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF SHEMYA...BUT CONTINUES TO
SPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN
BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
TODAY...THOUGH THE NAM DOES SEEM A TOUCH SLOW (1-2 HOURS) BRINGING
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AROUND THE AREA IS THE THREAT
OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND. FOR THE
MOST PART THE BELOW-FREEZING AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE...THE SUSITNA VALLEY...AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. IN THESE AREAS THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...BECAUSE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION
DEPENDS IN LARGE PART UPON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SOMETIME AROUND RUSH HOUR/6AM TOMORROW
(TUESDAY) MORNING. IF THIS FEATURE IS STRONG ENOUGH IT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME PRECIP IN AREAS USUALLY PROTECTED BY DOWNSLOPING. THE
12Z NAM HAD BEEN THE STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH THE
18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF TO A WEAKER SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/GEM/ECMWF). CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS AGAIN
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THE THOMPSON PASS AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...AND
WITH WARM AIR SURGING IN ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY WILL
UNFOLD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...WHERE THE FACT THAT THE
FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION "SPILLING OVER" THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS TRAVELING ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE BASIN. AS A RESULT...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO
TOMORROW.

THE EVOLUTION ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET IS MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER
IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING AND PRODUCE
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ANCHORAGE TO THE WESTERN
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY (SEE MODEL DISCUSSION
ABOVE). WE WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS CLOSELY FOR
CHANGES TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME IS THAT SOME PRECIP WILL FALL...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE
THE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS BRINGING WARM AIR WITH IT AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE ALREADY ABOVE
FREEZING IN ANCHORAGE FROM THE MORNING BALLOON LAUNCH AND THIS
SERVES AS AN INDICATION OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SUCH AS ANCHORAGE WILL MISS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM KODIAK ISLAND
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING. AS THE PARENT LOW
APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH...A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW WILL THEN TRACK OFF TO THE
WEST HELPING TO SHEAR WEAKEN AND SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BASED THIS AND
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE 161 AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARMER
WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. FREEZING RAIN WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN ALONG SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF 155 BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SPOTTY WITH LOW QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
EASTERLY GALES NORTH WITH IT. IN THE BERING...EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT AS THE NEW LOW THAT
BREAKS OF FROM THE LARGE WESTERN GULF LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE WEST
AROUND 55N AND TIGHTENS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A NEARLY STATIONARY AND
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SETUP ALONG THE ALEUTIANS ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED STORMY WEATHER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ENTER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST GALE FORCE
WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGHOUT THE GULF COAST. INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE.

BY THIS WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND
INTO THE BERING SEA...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
BECAUSE OF THIS THE FORECAST STARTING THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
HEAVILY USE WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO
HANDLE THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES. WHILE THIS LOW WILL DRAG DOWN
SOME COLD SIBERIAN AIR INTO THE BERING...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL BECOME A PERSISTENT FEATURE THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH A STATIONARY TROUGH OVER WITH BERING WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING OVER THE YUKON...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO AN END THE THE
WARM...MOIST...AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE
MAINLAND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES 131 AND 141.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131 138.
GALES 119 120 132 160 178 180 181 185 351 352 411 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DEK