Gale Warning 574, NWS Anchorage, AK

231 
FZAK51 PAFC 231156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240100-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF UNTIL THU NIGHT...THEN 
DISSIPATE.

$$

PKZ119-240100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE 
COPPER RIVER DELTA DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-240100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-240100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-240100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-240100-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-240100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-240100-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-240100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER 
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-240100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT 
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-240100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-240100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 6 FT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.TONIGHT...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING 
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-240100-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-240100-
MARMOT BAY-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-240100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EARLY EVENING. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-240100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-240100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-240100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
501 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN AK TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY HAS DISTINCT
CENTERS SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AND DUE WEST OF HAIDA GWAII...AS
WELL AS A WEAKER LOBE EXTENDING NORTH NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BERING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH THE MAIN
LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF SOUTHEAST AK. THIS CONFIGURATION IS
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AKPEN WITH SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE. SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER GULF
LOW...IN PARTICULAR ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE SAINT ELIAS TO
MONTAGUE ISLAND...AS WELL AS ON THE AKPEN NEAR THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL
STEADILY MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING
BUILDS EAST TODAY...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE
AKPEN. THIS GRADIENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH
THEN DRIFTS SOUTH. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH A FRONT FROM AN
EASTERN RUSSIA LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE BERING BEGINNING
LATER TODAY...REACHING THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND AK WED AFTERNOON
AND THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WED NIGHT. THE FORECAST
UTILIZES THE NAM FOR ITS BETTER DEPICTION OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE
AKPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
GULF AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE BERING SEA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TO MODERATE HYBRID BORA-GAP
WIND EVENT. THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR STRONG WINDS ARE SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME....WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AT ITS STRONGEST THIS
MORNING AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING (WITH APPROACHING POLAR JET AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM AND DESCENDING OF STATICALLY STABLE
AIR) NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THIS EVENING. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS A
SHORT-WAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE NOW APPEARS LIKE IT WILL GREATLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE RIDGE (AND POLAR JET OUT AHEAD OF IT). THIS WILL PROLONG
THE WIND EVENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHCENTRAL...NAMELY
THE VALDEZ TO THOMPSON PASS AREA WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST UPDATES TO THE WIND FORECAST ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
VARIOUS FORCING MECHANISMS AND ALTERED TIMING OF THEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUSITNA VALLEY TO COOK INLET CORRIDOR WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND LATE TONIGHT...AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SOMETIME
ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS IS HIGH...WHILE
DETAILS OF SPEEDS AND TIMING IS MUCH LOWER. AS WINDS DIE DOWN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP AND THURSDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE CHILLIEST MORNINGS SO FAR THIS FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING A SLOW
DECLINE IN NORTHERLY WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS COOL AIR FROM THE EXITING SYSTEM
LINGERS OVERHEAD. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ASHORE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BRINGING STEADY
RAIN TO THAT AREA WHILE PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY WILL SEE MORE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION OR NONE AT ALL.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHANGING AIR MASSES TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA...HOWEVER AN UPPER JET WILL PUNCH IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THEN
EASTERN BERING AS IT SKIRTS THE SURFACE HIGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WEAKENS THE HIGH FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING...NORTHERLY AND
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A SERIES OF JET STREAKS/WAVE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT ORIGINATING FROM RUSSIA MOVE INTO ALASKA. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN REGIME WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A NOISY SIGNAL IN TERMS OF
SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THESE RUSSIAN WAVE DISTURBANCES...WHICH
EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN LARGER UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO LATE WEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH THAT
SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND...WHICH
SHOULD BRING IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MOISTURE...WITH RAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS WITH THE FLOW PATTERN
AS THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW
MUCH TROPICAL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
TROPICAL STORM MALIA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN LATITUDES. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...130 131 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JA