Gale Warning 551, NWS Anchorage, AK

219 
FZAK62 PAFC 291147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300145-
347 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A GULF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
BERING LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY LATE
WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
347 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 19
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
347 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

964 
FZAK62 PAFC 292320
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301345-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX 983 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR WESTERN BERING WED AND STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN BERING THU. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN BERING LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 19
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO
11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

270 
FZAK62 PAFC 301146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010115-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 53N 175E THIS EVENING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO
970 MB AS IT MOVES TO 61N 176E LATE THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING THU MORNING AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING THU AFTERNOON AND INLAND LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT
BUILDING TO 11 TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
541 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING BENEATH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR IS HELPING TO
GENERATE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORED AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT TROUGH HAS
DROPPED INTO THE NORTHERN BERING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA AND IS
POISED TO BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AK OVER THE COMING DAYS AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SWINGS
ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SWINGS
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THEY CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH SEVERAL DETAILS WHICH WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE AREA. THE TREND OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO BRING THE TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AND TRY TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
CALLS INTO QUESTION THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...WITH THE NAM
ON THE FASTER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS/EC SOLUTIONS
LAGGING BEHIND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT LOCATIONS
AT SEA LEVEL WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
CONTINUED QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND THESE DETAILS LEND LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT STREAMS WILL BE RISING DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE BIG STORY COMES TOMORROW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR FROM
THE WEST AND A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND IS LOOKING QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS A TRICKY SITUATION TRYING TO HIT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE TIMING OF IT ALL. IN THE END IT ALL
BOILS DOWN TO THE COLD AIR AND WHEN IT GETS COLD ENOUGH TO
SNOW...AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT THAT TIME.

MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THREE DAYS IN BRINGING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SOMETIME TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO TURN THE RAIN TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY FROM COOK INLET
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MATSU VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE
AREA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM OVERLY REASONABLE LOOKING AT THE TRACK TO
COLD AIR IS TAKING AND THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS. WHAT LOOKS MOST
LIKELY AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL NEAR SEA
LEVEL WILL SEE ALL RAIN IN THE MORNING AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR TO TURN PRECIPITATION
TO ALL SNOW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING TO
ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 TO 2000 FT ARE A DIFFERENT STORY
WITH THE TIMING. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION
TURN TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS MUCH HIGHER
SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ACCUMULATION TO
WARRANT A SNOW ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO ACTUAL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON
THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
SINCE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AN AN ABRUPT END TO THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE DILLINGHAM AREA BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY KING SALMON BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO REFORM OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION AS IT DIVES TOWARDS THE GULF ON TUESDAY...KEEPING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR AT THIS POINT HOWEVER THAT THESE WILL BE MORE THAN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...SO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE HOWEVER WILL EXPERIENCE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO PERSIST. BY LATE THIS MORNING...THE
FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THE AREA...PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THAT WILL PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PRIBILOFS WILL CAUSE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO REFORM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK. OVER THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER INTO TUESDAY.
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
CENTERED NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
WESTERN BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TRACK TO EAST
AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY ALLOWING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY GAP WINDS WILL START THE DAY RATHER BREEZY
WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACK TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN AND
BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A SWATH
OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH IT.

AS THE LOW IN THE BERING DEEPENS RAPIDLY IT WILL STRENGTHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY AS IT IS PUSHED EAST OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WESTERN ALASKA
THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
FRONT IN THE BERING WILL REACH THE WEST COAST AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY THEN RAPIDLY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA TO A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE
SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE
YUKON TERRITORY AND INTO INTERIOR ALASKA AND KEEPING LOWS MORE
CONFINED TO THE BERING...WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 132 136 137 138 150 155 160 165 170
            172 180 351 352.
         STORM WARNING 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JER