Gale Warning 545, NWS Anchorage, AK

093 
FZAK62 PAFC 200434 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
834 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015

UPDATE TO ZONES 412 AND 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201715-
834 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 62N 170W WILL MOVE TO 58N 158W AT 1006 MB SUN
MORNING THEN TO 56N 154W AT 1004 MB SUN AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ411-201715-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
834 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201715-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
834 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201715-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
834 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201715-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
834 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

776 
FZAK62 PAFC 201144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210200-
344 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 60N 163W MOVES TO 57N 155W SUN AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-210200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING W UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING W UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

236 
FZAK62 PAFC 202254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
254 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211345-
254 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1018 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL TRACK TO 56N 170W AT 1022
MB MON MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE BERING SEA MON AND THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ411-211345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
254 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
254 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
254 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 AM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE PLANETARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM EASTERN RUSSIA
TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK...A WEAKENING CUT-OFF OVER
NORTHWEST AK...AND A DEVELOPING WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA
PREPARING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ALSO OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A DEVELOPING ELONGATED LOW IS OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA JUST WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST BERING. THE
REMAINS OF A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST AK UPPER LOW IS
DRAPED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES
WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTERN RUSSIA LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND CURVES FROM NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE. SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOUND AROUND THE GULF LOW...AFFECTING
MAINLY MARINE AREAS BUT ALSO THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW
IN THE GULF MIGRATES EAST AND THEN BECOMES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THAT PERSISTS INTO MON. THE FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES DISSIPATES BY SUN
MORNING. THE LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA DIVES SOUTHEAST...REACHING
WESTERN AK SAT EVENING AND CROSSING THE AKPEN SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHES THE REST OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. AT THAT POINT MODELS
DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. A WEAK IMPULSE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
RUSSIA AND THE MODELS DIFFER AS TO WHETHER IT INTENSIFIES AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING...OR IF IT NEVER STRENGTHENS AND
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST UTILIZES
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...AND THEN...AT LEAST
FOR NOW...LEANS TOWARD AN EC SOLUTION WHICH MINIMIZES THE IMPACT
OF THE EASTERN RUSSIA IMPULSE AND KEEPS RELATED ACTIVITY LIMITED
TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN BERING. WITH THIS SCENARIO HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REST OF THE BERING THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF OVER LAND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TRACKS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA SUNDAY BRUSHING PAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVERNIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES WHERE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE STARTING MID-MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY DIVES SOUTH COINCIDENT WITH A POTENT JET STREAK. THIS JET
STREAK WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
WILL RETURN BACK TO THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THIS
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY. THE POTENT JET STREAK COUPLED
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP
SQUEEZE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY GAPS. THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH COLD AIR NOR IS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG WINDS GUSTS...BUT
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY SHIFTS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MAINLAND BEGINS TO TAPER OFF...ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF RUSSIA. THERE IS STRONG
MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO WHETHER THIS JET STREAK WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW OR JUST AMPLIFY THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE TROUGH. SHOULD THE WEAK LOW DEVELOP...GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE SHIED
AWAY FROM THE SCENARIO OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND FAVORED A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE SURFACE RIDGE WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE
AND LEAVE MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WITH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH...IT LOOKS LIKELY FOR 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING SEA...WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 45 KT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA WILL BE
ENTRENCHED IN A LOW STRATUS/FOG REGIME WHILE THE EASTERN BERING
SEA WILL BE IN A RAINY/WINDY REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON MONDAY AS RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN STUCK
IN THE WESTERN BERING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING...BRINGING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
ALEUTIANS/AKPEN. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BRING QUIETER WEATHER
TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE MAINLAND...KEEPING LOWS WELL TO THE SOUTH
IN THE GULF. THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AGAIN THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY AS A ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MAINLAND FROM
SIBERIA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DEK