Gale Warning 543, NWS Anchorage, AK

790 
FZAK62 PAFC 122257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131400-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW AT 60N 160E WILL MOVE TO 63N 174W LATE SUN NIGHT AT
995 MB THEN TO 64N 161W MON AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING THIS
EVENING...THE CENTRAL BERING LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

509 
FZAK62 PAFC 131149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140200-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 993 MB KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SUN AFTERNOON
AND MOVES INLAND NEAR 64N 161W MON MORNING AT 996 MB. A 999 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 62N 176E AND TRACKS SOUTHEAST TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 16 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

921 
FZAK62 PAFC 132300
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141415-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 64N 178W MOVES TO 64N 165W AT 996 MB TONIGHT
THEN MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUE. A 998 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 62N 176E TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

441 
FZAK62 PAFC 141126
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150130-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EXITS MON AFTERNOON. A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 62N
176E TUE MORNING AND MOVES TO 59N 167W AT 996 MB EARLY WED.


$$

PKZ411-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA. A SMALL BUT FAIRLY POTENT
VORT-MAX IS CENTERED NEAR ANCHORAGE BRINGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TO AREAS SURROUNDING COOK INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ANOTHER
VORT-MAX IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVING EAST INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING
IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS NEAR ANIAK...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE COOL OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5
DEGREES CELSIUS. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SOME SMALL SCALE FEATURES...BUT THESE HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE IN A
LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON (THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON KILO) WITH THE ECMWF FASTER
THAN THE OTHER MAJOR MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE IS BRINGING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS IS
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA THAT ARE MORE INTENSE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVES. THE LAST WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
WILL THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. BUT THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN ALSO FROM THE WEST
LATE ON SUNDAY BRINGING BACK MORE RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SWEEP EAST DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN...AND BEFORE IT CAN
EXIT SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE NEXT SYSTEM (THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON KILO) WILL RAPIDLY ARRIVE AT THE COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF PRECIPITATION
AND WINDS...BUT NOT AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ENCOMPASS
MOST OF THE BERING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND RAIN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING AHEAD OF A STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LEADING FRONT WILL
BE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SATURDAY EVENING. AS IT MOVES EAST IT
WILL BECOME MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
STRETCHING FROM ABOUT NUNIVAK ISLAND THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS TO THE
RAT ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO AND JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON KILO WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST
AREAS...IT SHOULD BE NOTABLY LIGHTER THAN RECENT STORMS THAT HAVE
AFFECTED THE GULF COAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL NOT TAP INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST...BRINGING
INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND A POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL EROSION
TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH TIDES GENERALLY AT A LOW POINT IN
THE TIDAL CYCLE...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM CROSSES THE AKPEN INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC
TROUGH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY DESCEND INTO THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...DEK