Gale Warning 542, NWS Anchorage, AK

803 
FZAK62 PAFC 121155
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
355 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130200-
355 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED LOW NEAR 63N
169E SUN MORNING AT 991 MB WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO 63N 164W MON
MORNING AT 993 MB.

$$

PKZ411-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
355 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ412-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
355 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
355 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
355 AM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

790 
FZAK62 PAFC 122257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131400-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW AT 60N 160E WILL MOVE TO 63N 174W LATE SUN NIGHT AT
995 MB THEN TO 64N 161W MON AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING THIS
EVENING...THE CENTRAL BERING LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
257 PM AKDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

509 
FZAK62 PAFC 131149
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140200-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 993 MB KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SUN AFTERNOON
AND MOVES INLAND NEAR 64N 161W MON MORNING AT 996 MB. A 999 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 62N 176E AND TRACKS SOUTHEAST TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 16 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

921 
FZAK62 PAFC 132300
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141415-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 64N 178W MOVES TO 64N 165W AT 996 MB TONIGHT
THEN MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUE. A 998 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 62N 176E TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-141415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

441 
FZAK62 PAFC 141126
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150130-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND EXITS MON AFTERNOON. A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 62N
176E TUE MORNING AND MOVES TO 59N 167W AT 996 MB EARLY WED.


$$

PKZ411-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-150130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
326 AM AKDT MON SEP 14 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
503 AM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE JET IS VERY AMPLIFIED RIDING UP AND
OVER A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AT 85 TO 95 KT. IT THEN
DIVES DUE SOUTH SHARPLY OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IN SUPPORT OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. IT
THEN DRIVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE OF AK AT 120 TO 130
KT. WITHIN THE TROUGH WE FIND OUR DECAYING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
OVER BRISTOL BAY. SO WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST...SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS DRIVEN BY WIDESPREAD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SOME COLD
AIR CUMULUS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BRISTOL BAY IS EXPERIENCING A MIX OF SHOWERS UNDER THE
LOW CENTER AND SOME FOG WITH ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL...THE PRIMARY FRONT HAS CLEARED THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH. ALL
OF THE CONVECTION WE SAW THU AFTERNOON HAS WANED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL CENTER ARE TRACKING FROM THE KODIAK AREA TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THESE WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SYNOPTICALLY MODELS REMAIN IN SOLID SHAPE WITH
DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT. BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON SOME OF
THE FINER DETAILS. AND THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL BE
CRITICAL ELEMENTS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. OUT WEST...A BLEND
OF THE EC AND GFS WAS USED WITH FAIRLY LARGE SYSTEMS DOMINATING
THE PATTERN. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING THE WINDS...PRECIPITATION...AND WAVES FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TYPHOON KILO. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THAT
DEPARTMENT. FOR SOUTHCENTRAL...THE NAM MODEL WAS USED TO IMPART
SOME MORE DETAIL. THE STRUGGLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIMING EACH
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSE AND THE SHOWERS AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.

&&

.MARINE...INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IS
TAKING SHAPE ON SATELLITE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. AS IT SLIDES
NORTHEAST WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME CONVECTION THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF UP INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT. BUT IF A FEW
CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...FRI AND
SAT)...ANOTHER WET AND GUSTY DAY IS IN STORE FOR FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE KENAI AND MIDDLETON RADARS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH COOK INLET...THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THESE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH
ONLY SOUTH AND WEST ANCHORAGE PICKING UP MAYBE 15 MPH. SIMILAR TO
THU THOUGH WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. MODELS ARE STILL KEYING IN ON SOME INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS. AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSE THE AREA...AND IF WE CAN SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING VALDEZ AND CORDOVA.

SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA
COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
OPENS UP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND HELPS TO ADD PLENTY OF
MOISTURE INTO THE COLUMN. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID-
AFTERNOON...FOR COOK INLET. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK QUICKLY
THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY
SHOULD BRING A BRIEF DRYING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN RAPID-FIRE SUCCESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CULMINATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. ITS PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY HELP
RAISE WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE BERING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND RAIN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING AHEAD OF A STRONG
DISTURBANCE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO THE GULF COAST WITH RAIN TO
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL INTO SUNDAY WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WHICH WILL QUICKLY
BECOME INVIGORATED ON SUNDAY BY THE APPROACHING REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON KILO THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA INTO
THE BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR
THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE
(AROUND 990 MB)...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING WESTERLY
GALE FORCE WINDS STRETCHING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST
COAST LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS LONG FETCH...15 TO 20 FT
SEAS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL EROSION FOR THAT
AREA INTO MONDAY. AFTER THE REMNANTS OF THIS LOW WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH WEAKER WITH
RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND INSTEAD BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
SYSTEMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INTO MID
WEEK...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DEK