Gale Warning 507, NWS Anchorage, AK

696 
FZAK51 PAFC 102309
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111200-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 200 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS TO 1000 MB AND
MOVES TO 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT EARLY WED MORNING. THIS LOW
WEAKENS TO 1006 MB AS IT MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-111200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 8
FT...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. NEAR THE COAST...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111200-
PORT VALDEZ-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111200-
VALDEZ ARM-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111200-
CHINIAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111200-
MARMOT BAY-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-111200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT MON AUG 10 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FRONT
CONTAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THERE IS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS BETWEEN
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. A BAND OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PUSHING INTO THE SPACE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA TROUGH AND NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE...JUST
SKIRTING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS A LOW THAT FORMS SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND THEN MOVES
INTO THE GULF ON TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN GEM IS WEAKER/FASTER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS PRETTY MUCH FROM THE START. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SEEM ROUGHLY SIMILAR INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A BIT
FASTER. CONFIDENCE IS THUS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE ARE THUS NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LATE
TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE BETHEL SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE
DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 700 MB OR SO...KEEPING THE LOWER
LEVELS QUITE MOIST. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN GOING ALONG THE UPSLOPE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS AND FLOW BELOW 700
MB WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL.

BY LATE MONDAY THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. AS THE FLOW WEST OF THE AXIS BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY...EXPECT DOWNSLOPING TO KEEP MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...EFFECTIVELY ENDING MOST
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE TALKEETNAS BY MONDAY EVENING. EAST OF
THE TALKEETNAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO COOL DOWN THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA. AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR... MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE ONSHORE AND UNSTABLE FLOW FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE LOW NEAR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
LOW WILL HAVE MADE IT TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS DIMINISHING THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN. THE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TO THE EAST TUESDAY CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY PERIOD OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET REGION
WILL SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN PROBABILITIES
GRADUALLY INCREASING TOWARD LATE WEEK.

THE BIGGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY OUT WEST REMAINS THE EVENTUAL
FATE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...EITHER BRINGING THE REMNANTS INTO THE ALEUTIAN REGION OR
KEEPING IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SWITCHED BACK TO
SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION WITH
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH POSITION BACK TOWARD THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS WOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN A COOLER
AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ONCE THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EAST BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CC