Gale Warning 498, NWS Anchorage, AK

338 
FZAK62 PAFC 251110
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260100-
310 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH
WED. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 169E WILL MOVE TO 60N 172E AT 996 MB
TONIGHT AND THEN TO 63N 172W AT 1011 MB WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-260100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-260100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-260100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ414-260100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

688 
FZAK62 PAFC 252303
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261330-
303 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 56N 171E WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB NEAR 63N 175W
WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY INLAND NEAR 64N 166W THU EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA WED NIGHT 
AND THU.

$$

PKZ411-261330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-261330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ413-261330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ414-261330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

621 
FZAK62 PAFC 261144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270115-
344 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 60N 172E WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH LATE THU
NIGHT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU.

$$

PKZ411-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. IT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN YESTERDAY. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING STRONGLY OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES THROUGH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BRISTOL BAY...AND COOK INLET REGIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CAUSING THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS A
NORTH TO SOUTH FLOWING JET STREAK DIGS THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. OUT
WEST...WARM AIR IS BEING QUICKLY DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF RUSSIA. THE WARM AIR MOVING
OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATER IS CAUSING OCCASIONALLY DENSE WARM
ADVECTION FOG OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

THE JET IS FLOWING AROUND A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
COLLOCATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INDICATIVE OF VERY
UNUSUALLY WARM AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS GIVING US OUR
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE UPPER LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOW FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 13000 FEET.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY...RIDGING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH IS BUILDING EAST INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL...ACTING TO CAP THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY LOOKING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE BY WEDNESDAY IN
THE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT ZONALLY-ORIENTED JET
STREAK GETS. THE NAM AND GFS ARE STRONGER IN INTENSITY...BUT KEEP
THE AXIS OF THE JET MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE EC. ULTIMATELY
THIS LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. FOR NOW...THE IMPACTS OF THESE
DIFFERENCES ON SURFACE WEATHER ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MOSTLY PROTECTED FROM
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA...SLOWLY INCREASING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GULF LOW WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AND OFFSHORE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND/OR END
BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE TOP OF THE STOUT
NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY BECOMING STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MORE ZONAL FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAINFALL AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE BERING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND THE
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE LATER IN THE WEEK. THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY RIDING
OVER TOP OF IT. THE ECMWF...BEING THE FAVORED SOLUTION...CONTINUES
TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
GULF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE TROUGH AFTER ANOTHER WILL DROP OUT OF
EASTERN SIBERIA AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE BERING AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND UNDER A WET AND COOLING REGIME FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS
A MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BERING WHICH
KEEPS ANY ENERGY EXITING SIBERIA FURTHER NORTH BEFORE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
GULF. THE GFS IS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SPINNING UP A STRONGER
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF BOTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALONG WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
AND OUTFLOW GAP WINDS OVER THE AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME.

IN EITHER CASE...RAIN WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
SOMETIME MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A COOLING TREND SETTING UP
OVER THE BERING AND MAINLAND THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE CONTINUED
LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...175 176 177 179 185 411 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP