Gale Warning 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

073 
FZAK52 PAFC 171148
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-180100-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT LIFTS NORTH TODAY THEN DISSIPATES TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE TIP OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL DEEPEN TO 989 MB AS IT TRACKS TO 420 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
EAST TO 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 994 MB THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-180100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-180100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-180100-
BRISTOL BAY-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-180100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-180100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-180100-
UNALASKA BAY-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 15 KT DURING THE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-180100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-180100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-180100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-180100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-180100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-180100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-180100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-180100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-180100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-180100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-180100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
348 AM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

693 
FZAK52 PAFC 172301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181145-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW 470 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 992 MB SAT AFTERNOON THEN TO 120 NM WEST
OF SHEMYA AT 995 MB SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-181145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181145-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181145-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-181145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
508 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN A SHARP CURVE TO THE NORTH TODAY AS A
STRONG JET STREAK CENTERED AROUND 41N ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER AND THE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF TO AMPLIFY...TURNING THE
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 170W AND 150W TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
FETCH OF THIS STRENGTHEN JET WILL EXTEND FROM 40N UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA RUNNING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF...SHELIKOF
STRAIT AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO STEER
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO BRISTOL BAY AND PROPEL AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START CREEPING IN WITH ALL THE LITTLE
WAVES AND TROUGHS BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. THESE BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN HOW THE WAVE ENERGY IS
SPLIT UP IN THE DIFFUSE WESTERLY FLOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND MAINLAND ALASKA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS COOL...WET AND WINDY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH STEADY RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION
PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING
SEVERAL DAYS OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL PEAK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEND INTO
ANCHORAGE...PALMER...AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH A BIT...BUT GUSTY SOUTHERLIES WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH PRESSURE RISES IN A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER.

STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS...BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING UP THE INLET THIS EVENING WILL ENSURE THAT ALL AREAS
GET SOME RAIN. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. THE MEAN FLOW
BEHIND THE STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT SOLIDLY TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAKER UPPER WAVES MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SPREADING RAIN TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH. A RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE BERING
TONIGHT FORCING THE LOW AND FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COAST. A TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TAPER DOWN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE WESTERN BERING KEEPS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG MUCH OF THE BERING TODAY AS THE LOW NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE GUSTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING UNTIL THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT TROUGH SWINGS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GALE WINDS AND RAIN ALONG THE FRONT
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SAT THROUGH WED)...
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE TAPERING OFF OF THE RAIN EVENT
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND A TRANSITION TO SOME DRIER
AND SUNNIER WEATHER. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND FALL APART OVER THE TANANA VALLEY. RAIN
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
THE ALASKA RANGE AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND HANGING ON TO
THE PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST. MEANWHILE...A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN BERING. BY
SUNDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO NOSE OVER THE
MAINLAND FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS IT DOES SO IT SHOULD START A
DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
TRIGGER A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THAN THEY HAVE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOW 70S POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF COOK INLET MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. EVEN WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY LIGHT WINDS AND THE MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN EXTREMELY GOOD
AGREEMENT (FOR DAY 7) IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER RAIN AND WIND EVENT FOR MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND. WE HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY
YET AS THERE IS STILL RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN HOW FAST THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 125 130 131
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MSO