Gale Warning 478, NWS Anchorage, AK

991 
FZAK51 PAFC 032306
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041145-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN GULF 
SAT AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-041145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-041145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-041145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-041145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-041145-
PORT VALDEZ-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-041145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-041145-
VALDEZ ARM-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-041145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ130-041145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-041145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-041145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-041145-
CHINIAK BAY-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-041145-
MARMOT BAY-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-041145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-041145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-041145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-041145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
306 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
420 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STACKED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
COINCIDING WITH A ROBUST 700-MB JET STREAK FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DISINTEGRATE AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST TROUGH
AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG A MCGRATH TO SEWARD LINE...AND REPRESENTS
THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
INTERIOR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT RIDGING THAT HAS EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING
CONTINUES TO HOLD EVEN AS AN ALEUTIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
ADAK. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WHILE
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE UPPER COOK INLET REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT...AND WILL HELP
TO CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE-RICH LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT FOR SATURDAY...BUT
WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST.

A FRONT PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
ANCHOR LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND START TO SHEAR APART SATURDAY...BUT WILL STILL BRING
RAIN AND WIND TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOME SHOWERS INLAND. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN
ARM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS WELL AS THROUGH GAPS IN THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
INLAND FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. UNDER TRANSITORY
RIDGING FRIDAY SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT...WITH
SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AND CLEAR ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SATURDAY WILL SEE A SOLID OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FRONT
MOVING INLAND...WITH RAIN TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND SHOWERS INLAND OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED
TERRAIN GAPS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ALOFT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AK WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER MOUNTAINS TO TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND TALKEETNAS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT FROM THE GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS...WITH AREAS ON THE LEE
SIDE OF COASTAL MOUNTAINS ONLY RECEIVING SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MAINLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST KEEPS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...BARELY
CLIPPING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BATTLE
WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...KEEPING ANY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. FRIDAY WILL
BRING A QUICK SPIKE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEFORE A FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC ON SATURDAY...MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SPREADING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY
ARCING FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
UNTIL A DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE PICKS IT UP AND MOVES IT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML