Gale Warning 419, NWS Anchorage, AK

391 
FZAK52 PAFC 102257
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111145-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA MON AT 1004 MB. A 986 MB LOW NEAR 500 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON WILL TRACK TO 160 NM EAST OF SHEMYA
AT 980 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-111145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-111145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E... E WIND
25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-111145-
BRISTOL BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-111145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 15 KT IN
THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-111145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-111145-
UNALASKA BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-111145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-111145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-111145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-111145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-111145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-111145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-111145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-111145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-111145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-111145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-111145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO AREAS ALL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVES FROM THIS LOW ARE ALSO BRINGING
SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO MORE INLAND LOCATIONS. WEAK RIDGING RESIDES TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW WITH ANOTHER LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE BERING.
THIS LOW IS ALSO WEAKENING BUT STILL HAS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING. A THIRD LOW IS FORMING SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND IS STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE MID
TERM THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF MONDAY
WITH THE EC AND GEM HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN POSITION
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS. HOWEVER...THIS DIFFERENCE SHOULD HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL
AND KODIAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF COAST REGIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WHILE ALSO WEAKENING...THE BROADER
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND BRING A COOLER SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTH AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW ON MONDAY...LIFTING NORTH UP AND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. IN ADDITION TO
BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AND SOME SHOWERS
WITH IT THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A STRONG PUSH OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIE UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT
FROM THE BERING...AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THIS WILL
GIVE MOST OF THE AREA A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT...THOUGH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SHORT OF
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

BY MONDAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE GROWING CERTAINTY IN THE WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE BERING MOVING INLAND AND THEN SLOWLY FALLING APART
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INTRODUCED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE BERING AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...THE BERING FRONT WILL BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY AND
ELONGATE NORTH-SOUTH FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO UNIMAK ISLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATING PW VALUES
OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
CONTINUOUS RAIN ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS FROM DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD TO SAND POINT.

AS THE SECOND LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY AND WILL GENERALLY STAY
BELOW 25 KTS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE BERING
SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

A TRAILING WEAK AND FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
RAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
FALL APART AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW POSITIONED IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A THERMAL TROUGH FORMING IN
THE INTERIOR HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. THE MODELS WERE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

ON THE BERING SEA SIDE...THE NORTHERN BERING WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW
DISSIPATING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE...THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A NORTH PACIFIC GALE FORCE LOW APPROACHING BY
LATE MONDAY EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATE WEATHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION INTO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BY MIDWEEK.
DOWNSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155 AND 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...PD