Gale Warning 407, NWS Anchorage, AK

007 
FZAK52 PAFC 021134
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030045-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 390 NM SOUTH OF IVANOF BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF LATE THIS MORNING. A 996 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL
MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATTU AT ROUGHLY THE SAME INTENSITY
SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 986 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 320 NM
SOUTH OF ADAK SUN MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB LATE SUN 90 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK.

$$

PKZ150-030045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-030045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM COLD BAY W. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-030045-
BRISTOL BAY-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-030045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 20 KT...EXCEPT NE
WIND 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-030045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-030045-
UNALASKA BAY-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-030045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 20 KT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-030045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SE 20 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-030045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-030045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-030045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-030045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-030045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON S AND W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT S AND W OF
SHEMYA. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-030045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-030045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-030045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-030045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
334 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. PATCHY
FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 20 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
508 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...WITH AN
EXTENSION TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW AND ITS EXTENSION EACH
HAVE A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS STILL WEAKLY
CYCLONIC...WHICH IS COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE TO CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
HELPED PUSH MORE STABLE AIR AND FOG INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS. THIS STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY HINDER
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THESE AREAS TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM. THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
MOISTURE/STABILITY FIELDS BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY EASILY HANDLED IN
THE FORECAST. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN QUITE WEAK...SO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP AND REMAIN OVER AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
COOK INLET THIS EVENING MAY HELP KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS THIS
EVENING OVER INTERIOR AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
MAKE FOR A VERY NICE WEEKEND ACROSS THE MAJOR POPULATION
CENTERS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT...SO GENERALLY WEAK AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA
BREEZES CAN AND SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH ONLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND ARE
LIKELY TO SEE STEADY RAIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BEGINNING AS SNOW IN THE MORNING FOR SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS A WEST-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL PATCH OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD IMPACT
ONLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SLEETMUTE...AND WEAK SOUTHERLY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD PUSH ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A DEEP
MARINE LAYER ONSHORE...WITH DENSE FOG EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING NEAR BETHEL AND ALONG THE COAST.

THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET STREAK STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
MOVING NORTH AND OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IF NOT STRATIFORM RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES TO THE EASTERN
BERING SATURDAY AND THEN INLAND FOR SUNDAY. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING BEHIND
THIS FEATURE LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAK WINDS AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPING OR CONTINUING. UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH A LOW-END GALE-FORCE FRONT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE REALLY
STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT OF A NEW LOW THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH
OVER THE PACIFIC TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE
EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT AND KEEPS THE NEW LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND BY THIS
WEEKEND WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED
BY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT EVOLVES INTO
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK WHEREAS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE LOW FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST AK AND LIMIT IMPACTS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
AK PRIMARILY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

MEANWHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH A PERIOD OF WETTER CONDITIONS
ALSO RETURNING TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND ESPECIALLY THE GULF COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AMD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...CB