Gale Warning 320, NWS Anchorage, AK

069 
FZAK62 PAFC 211144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220100-
344 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 998 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
 STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB NEAR 55N 152W TUE NIGHT AND WILL THEN TRACK
TO THE EASTERN GULF WED NIGHT. A 980 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE
TO 54N 177E AT 980 MB BY WED NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WESTERN BERING TUE EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING BY WED AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ411-220100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

.TODAY...W TO S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE TO SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.WED...SE TO SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W TO S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT N OF 58N.
.WED...SE TO SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N OF 58N.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S TO W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

835 
FZAK62 PAFC 212249
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
249 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221300-
249 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 53N 156W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB NEAR 55N 151W
TUE NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON
WED. A 975 MB LOW NEAR 54N 163E WILL TRACK TO 54N 176W THU AFTERNOON
AT 985 MB. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-221300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
249 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-221300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
249 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

PKZ413-221300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
249 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-221300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
249 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

535 
FZAK62 PAFC 221144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230045-
344 AM AKDT WED APR 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 56N 165E WILL TRACK TO 55N 177E AT 984 MB WED
NIGHT THEN TO 55N 170W AT 989 MB THU NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-230045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-230045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-230045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-230045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

794 
FZAK62 PAFC 222310
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231330-
310 PM AKDT WED APR 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 55N 170E WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB AS IT MOVES TO
55N 176W THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 993
MB NEAR 55N 166W FRI AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING WED NIGHT AND THU.

$$

PKZ411-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 PM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIBLE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU...VARIBLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 6
TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIBLE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 PM AKDT WED APR 22 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED STACKED LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND WITH THE SURFACE LOW BEING REFLECTED JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS LOW HAS SEVERAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AROUND THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE EASTERN GULF HAS A 100 KNOT SOUTHERLY JET
STREAM POSITIONED THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING THROUGH THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE RADAR IMAGERY IS REFLECTING
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THROUGH COOK INLET INTO THE
LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS ARE ALL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER WIND IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE GULF WITH 20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CHIRIKOF ISLANDS.

OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS REGION...THERE IS A
NORTHERLY 90 KNOT JET STREAM POSITION OVER THE WESTERN BERING.
THIS JET STREAM TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL FLOW WITH A 110 KNOT JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE COLD AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BERING SEA AND ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS MORNING. ON THE
BERING SIDE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE
LOW OVER SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTLINE THIS MORNING. BY TUESDAY
MORNING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL RECEIVE TODAY. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL. ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE
GEM-REGIONAL WAS PREFERRED DUE TO BETTER HANDLING OF THE COLD AIR
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL REMAINED VERY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT
AS THERE WERE NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHWEST SUSITNA VALLEY NEAR THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TURN PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW IN THE COOK
INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
THEIR HIGHEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA NORTHWARD DUE TO THIS FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO EVEN IF IT WARMS
INTO THE 40S THE TEMPERATURE WILL DROP RAPIDLY WHEN A SNOW SHOWER
MOVES OVERHEAD. THOSE TWO REASONS ARE WHY MOST AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS WELL ABOVE FREEZING YET STILL HAVE SNOW AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THE MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER OFF OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SNOW
SHOWERS...REGION WIDE...MAY BECOME INTENSE AT TIMES WITH HEAVY
SNOW SQUALLS AND BLOWING SNOW...AND WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THE WESTERN CAPES...THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
POTENTIAL HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE. ON TUESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SLOWLY STABILIZE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD
AND INTENSE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED INTENSE SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGIONS.

SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH SNOW
THREATS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AS AN ELONGATED FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A RATHER NARROW ZONE OF POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND A PARENT LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOF
ISLANDS UNDER THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH. A FAST MOVING WARM FRONT
WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOW END
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON SOME HIGH
AMPLITUDE FEATURES EXTENDING FROM KAMCHATKA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. ON WEDNESDAY...TWO AREA OF LOW PRESSURES...ONE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA...WILL
BOTH BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE QUICK TO DISSIPATE AS THE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA BARRELS EASTWARD AND ABSORBS THE REMNANTS
OF THE GULF LOW ON THURSDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH THESE TWO LOWS ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE SPED THE SYSTEMS UP BY
ABOUT 12 HOURS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A JET
STREAK ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING AS THE INITIAL LOW OVER KAMCHATKA ELONGATES AND GETS
TRAPPED ON THE EAST SIDE BY A BUILDING PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS RIDGE NOSING ACROSS
ALASKA BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST OF ALASKA DUE TO
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A SECOND KAMCHATKA LOW WILL PUSH
OFF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO THE ONE
OBSERVED MIDWEEK. OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO
CHANGE MUCH IN THE COMING 7 TO 10 DAYS AS THE JET STREAM CONTINUES
TO STAY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161.
MARINE...GALE 165 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JRA
LONG TERM...MC