Gale Warning 314, NWS Anchorage, AK

408 
FZAK61 PAFC 132305
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKDT MON APR 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141330-
305 PM AKDT MON APR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TRACK TO 54N 155W AT 980 MB TUE AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING TO 992 MB NEAR 58N 148W WED AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
MON NIGHT AND WILL STALL AND WEAKEN ALONG WITH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN GULF COAST TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-141330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
305 PM AKDT MON APR 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-141330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
305 PM AKDT MON APR 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.

$$

530 
FZAK61 PAFC 141155
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
355 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150130-
355 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 976 MB LOW NEAR 51N
162W WILL MOVE TO 57N 150W AT 985 MB LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY LATE WED NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TUE NIGHT THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.


$$

PKZ351-150130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
355 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE LATE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-150130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
355 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 TO 30 KT BY 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

432 
FZAK61 PAFC 142310
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-151400-
310 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 55N 155W WILL MOVE TO 58N 150W AT 992 MB WED
AFTERNOON AND WILL THEN FURTHER WEAKEN TO 1002 MB AS IT MOVES
INLAND NEAR 61N 151W THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-151400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-151400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKDT SUN APR 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH AND WEST GULF OF ALASKA WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OBSERVED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW. A SURFACE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE WAVES MOVED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE KENAI AND NORTHERN GULF. CLEARING OVER THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON CAUSED ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL HEATING TO MAKE THE REGION WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

OUT WEST...BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA TO OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS FULLY OCCLUDED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT BOUYS
WELL OUTSIDE OF THE SATELLITE BASED CENTER SHOW A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 986 MB...SO A MODEL PROJECTION OF 976 MB SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE KEY FEATURES. THE NAM AND GEM
REGIONAL ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB ON THE LOW MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPING LOW
CENTER SOUTH OF THE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS ALSO FAIRLY WELL
HANDLED BY THE MODEL SUITE.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
STARTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG A FRONT...AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE PARKS
HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
FAVORED GAPS...INCLUDING DOWN TURNAGAIN ARM AND INTO PORTIONS OF
ANCHORAGE IN THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. TOMORROW WILL BE
DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE AS A WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINES WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...KEEPING MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN OTHER WORDS...MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A RATHER PLEASANT SPRING DAY TOMORROW.

BY TUESDAY MORNING AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. GUSTY WINDS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THIS FRONT TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF. AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE CHUGACH RANGE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
DOWNSLOPING...WITH SOME DECENT CROSS BARRIER FLOW SETTING UP AS
THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN
BRISTOL BAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND ENTERS THE GULF. THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR IN NORTHEAST BRISTOL BAY...WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVERRUNNING WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. SNOWFALL HOWEVER WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS WEBCAMS IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INDICATED THE SNOW WAS STRUGGLING TO ACCUMULATE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING THESE SHOULD EASILY DIMINISH AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
CLEARING SKIES. ON TUESDAY A NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE
AKPENN WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY
FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE
THE SHORT TERM WEATHER OVER THE BERING STARTING THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH STRONG
WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS STARTING THIS EVENING...BEFORE
SPREADING INTO THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INITIALLY WITH THE
FRONT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MID 30S AND MIXING
WITH RAIN...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL COLDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN NEAR ADAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD INTO DUTCH HARBOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPENN...LEAVING MUCH
OF THE BERING WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MAIN LOW IN THE GULF WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW WITH IT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THEN TRACK EAST NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SOME DISCREPANCIES THEN
DEVELOP WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC AND GEM
BRING IT INTO THE BERING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS RESULTS IN TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT AND ITS ARRIVAL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE
GFS BEING BOTH FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 170 171 177 178.
 STORM 172-176.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...DK