Gale Warning 307, NWS Anchorage, AK

887 
FZAK61 PAFC 081142
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 AM AKDT WED APR 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090200-
342 AM AKDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES
INLAND BY THU EVENING. A LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 59N 148W AT 981 MB FRI
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-090200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
342 AM AKDT WED APR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
342 AM AKDT WED APR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

112 
FZAK61 PAFC 082326
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091445-
326 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WED EVENING BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INLAND
BY THU EVENING. A 980 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 58N 149W THU NIGHT AND
MOVES TO 59N 146W AT 982 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
326 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
326 PM AKDT WED APR 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

650 
FZAK61 PAFC 091105
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 AM AKDT THU APR 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100130-
305 AM AKDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND BY THIS EVENING. A 980 MB LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR 59N 149W FRI MORNING MOVES TO 59N 145W AT 985 MB SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
305 AM AKDT THU APR 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
305 AM AKDT THU APR 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

167 
FZAK61 PAFC 092323
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKDT THU APR 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-101445-
323 PM AKDT THU APR 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 59N 153W WILL MOVE TO 59N 146W AT 983 MB FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB BY
SAT AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-101445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
323 PM AKDT THU APR 9 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-101445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
323 PM AKDT THU APR 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

089 
FZAK61 PAFC 101134
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110215-
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR 59N 151W WILL MOVE TO 58N 143W AT 983 MB FRI
NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB BY SAT
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-110215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
334 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

805 
FZAK61 PAFC 102319
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-111500-
319 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 58N 147W MOVES TO 60N 147W AT 990 MB SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
SUNDAY AND WEAKENS

$$

PKZ351-111500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
319 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-111500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
319 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

757 
FZAK61 PAFC 111137
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-120100-
337 AM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 58N 143W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND NEAR 
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
337 AM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-120100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
337 AM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

521 
FZAK61 PAFC 112305
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121315-
305 PM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR 59N 147W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND OVER
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY.

$$

PKZ351-121315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
305 PM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-121315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
305 PM AKDT SAT APR 11 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 19 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
536 AM AKDT TUE APR 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND
WITH A CUT-OFF LOW FORMING JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. UPSTREAM THERE IS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA REGION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN SLOPE. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
STRENGTHENING BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FOR MCHUGH CREEK HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S MPH THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW IS POSITIONED IN
THE NORTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT AREA WITH THE WARM FRONT ENTERING THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE PLUM OF
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTLINE...INLAND AREAS AND SPILLING OVER INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION. THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL CONTINUE IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING REPORTED IN UPPER 40S. WHILE...THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL CONTINUES TO DOWNSLOPE OUT RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW.

ON THE BERING SIDE...THERE IS A GALE FORCE LOW POSITIONED OVER
NUNIVAK ISLAND BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST REGION
WITH LOWER STRATUS AND SNOW SHOWERS ADVECTING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AREA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FROM THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS CHAIN...THERE
IS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST ASCAT SCATTEREOMETER WINDS
IMAGERY...SHOWED PREDOMINANTLY 30 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. WHILE...THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NAM/GFS WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS
SLOWER WITH THE TRIPLE POINT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY INTERIOR. WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF MODELS WERE USED ON
THE BERING SIDE WITH HOW THEY WERE DEPICTING THE LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE NUNIVAK ISLAND REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS IN THE
BERING...HANDLED THE KAMCHATKA LOW VERY WELL AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION INLAND...WHICH WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF "LIKELY" POPS TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
THIS LOW SLIDES THROUGH...THOUGH IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS AS A DEEPER
LOW OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. A FRONT FROM THAT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KODIAK AND INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT AND THE LOW FOLLOWING
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL NOT REACH AS FAR INLAND AS THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAINLY STAYING IN THE GULF AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE THIS MORNING. THE FIRST IS THE VERTICALLY STACKED AND
WEAKENING 982 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING. THE SECOND IS A 977 MB LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIGHT WHICH WILL MOVE
INLAND TO MERGE WITH THE KUSKOKWIM LOW AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STEADY
SNOW WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE TODAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE A VERY ROBUST AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING 985 MB LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW HAS EXCELLENT JET SUPPORT WITH IT
WITH UPPER JET WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS 100 KT REPORTED ON THE
SHEMYA SOUNDING THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE BERING WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM...A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY ALL SNOW FURTHER NORTH. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
NOT INDICATING AS MUCH WARM ADVECTION OR MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SNOW AND IN LOWER AMOUNTS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 985
MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
AND ITS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE BERING SEA
TO BE NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
SYSTEM ONLY HAS MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE SUPERB DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A
VERY WIDE SWATH OF UPPER GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA
AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BERING SEA. DUE TO THE LONG FETCH OF THIS SYSTEM...SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 25 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENERGY IN THE BERING LOW
WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE AKPEN AND FORM A TRIPLE POINT LOW BETWEEN
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND ON THU. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THU NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE EASTERN KENAI THROUGH FRI...AND THEN A NEW LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THAT AREA ON SAT BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF THROUGH
MON. THIS SCENARIO MEANS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING
WINDS TO CHANNELED TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. ABUNDANT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE GULF COAST THROUGH SAT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MON. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THU NIGHT INTO FRI HAS
WARM AIR IN PLACE SO PRECIP WILL BE RAIN OR A MIX..BUT BEGINNING
FRI NIGHT COLD AIR SLIPS INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH MON.

MEANWHILE...AS THE LOWS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE BERING...COLD WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE BERING...THE ALEUTIANS...AND SOUTHWEST AK INTO MON.

THE FORECAST RELIES ON THE EC AND WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 413.
         GALE WARNINGS 119 120 125 129 155 165 170 171 172
         173 174 175 176 177 178 179 351 411 412 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...DS