Gale Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

574 
FZAK61 PAFC 310007
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-311415-
307 PM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN STATIONARY
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ351-311415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
307 PM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-311415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
307 PM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

737 
FZAK61 PAFC 311216
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010300-
316 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN STATIONARY
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ351-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-010300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

044 
FZAK61 PAFC 010013
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010115-
313 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ351-010115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-010115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
405 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA IS THE
STRONGEST FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF IT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH
WEAKER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE THE STRONG HIGH PERSISTS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS A COMPLEX
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE NORTH GULF COAST. A LOW
HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA
WHICH IS ENHANCING LIFT OVER THE GULF COASTAL REGIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BERING SEA REGION.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS VERY GOOD AGAIN ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OF
THE MAIN MODELS. THE ONE FEATURE THAT RAPIDLY DIVERGES IS THE LOW
THAT IS WEST OF ATTU AND MOVING NORTHWARD. THE SPEED AND STRENGTH
OF THIS LOW VARY QUITE A BIT STARTING TONIGHT. HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT ONLY THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.

WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF THE GFS ECMWF AND NAM ARE VERY
SIMILAR THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE DONG A BETTER JOB WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE NAM IS MUCH HEAVIER WITH THE SNOW
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN
LINE WITH WHAT IS IN THE FORECASTS. THE REASON THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
TOO HIGH IS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALREADY IN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS WELL AS THE MODEL JUST SHOWING TOO MUCH
MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THEREFORE THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED AS MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...SPREADING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INTO INLAND AREAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE MAT VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO ANCHORAGE.
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL ALSO SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARD THE WESTERN
KENAI. CONTINUED STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. BLUSTERY WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH ALL FAVORED MOUNTAIN PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY...WITH RAPID CLEARING DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
EVENING AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN. A RETURN TO CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL RESUME REGION WIDE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW SHOWERS OVER KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A PERSISTENT BERING SEA HIGH INTERACTING WITH A LOW SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN WILL KEEP A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SW AK. NORTHEAST
WIND WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE ON SAT AS THE BERING RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE AKPEN AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH SAT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THESE LOCATIONS ON SAT. A WEATHER SYSTEM SKIRTING THE
WESTERN BERING AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND AND A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WELL SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND VERY COLD AIR FILTERING
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW THEN RETURNS TO
THE FORECAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN
ARCTIC TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM THE CHUKCHI
SEA...WHICH WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 132 138 150 155 170 171 172 173 174 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 127 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB