Gale Warning 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

637 
FZAK51 PAFC 181121
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190000-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A DEVELOPING 999 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE OVER AFOGNAK ISLAND AND DISSIPATE EARLY THU MORNING. A 991 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK BY
EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-190000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-190000-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-190000-
RESURRECTION BAY-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-190000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-190000-
PORT VALDEZ-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-190000-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-190000-
VALDEZ ARM-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-190000-
PASSAGE CANAL-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-190000-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-190000-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-190000-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-190000-
CHINIAK BAY-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-190000-
MARMOT BAY-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-190000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN
BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-190000-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-190000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-190000-
KACHEMAK BAY-
321 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING IS A LARGE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR.
THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE
BERING SEA WELL INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GULF. ONE OF THESE WAVES IS CURRENTLY EXITING
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS IT MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE
INTERIOR...LEAVING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
BERING...BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY. BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WITH NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE BROAD LOW REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL
WAVES TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART ALL OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE ON THE SAME
PAGE. UTILIZED THE GEM REGIONAL FOR ENHANCED DETAIL IN THE FIRST
24-36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A GFS/EC
BLEND INTO THE MIDTERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY. AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SLIDE
NORTHWEST TODAY INTO THE GULF TODAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL REACH THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THE
DOWN-SLOPE COMPONENT IN PLAY FOR INLAND AREAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY
AND TO THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A
VERY SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BRING
SNOW FROM WESTERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS SNOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID CLEARING OF CLOUDCOVER BY
THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AKPEN ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SAME AREAS ON FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW THAT CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HEADING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEGINNING
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY THIS LATE EVENING...THEN RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THESE
SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER...AND WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS A RETURN TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED.

OVER THE ALEUTIANS...RAIN THAT IS CURRENTLY FALLING FROM UNALASKA
EASTWARD WILL BECOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
AS COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LOW BEGINNING THIS
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WEST OF ATKA WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOLER...THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FROM
MATERIALIZING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS SNOWFALL WILL THEN
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND TO MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE BROAD CYCLONIC JET SUPPORTING A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BUCKLE
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PACIFIC. SURFACE FEATURES ARE NOT WELL HANDLED BY OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND WPC GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE THE CONFUSION INTO
A REASONABLE SOLUTION BY USING A FAIR AMOUNT OF EC ENSEMBLE.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE...A WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SAT THROUGH SUN...AND A NEW NORTH PACIFIC FRONT
WILL SKIRT THE ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN
AND SNOW TO GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND...AND
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
FORECAST BRIEFLY UTILIZES THE EC AND GFS IN THE MID TERM WHICH
TRANSITIONS INTO THE WPC SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 174.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 165
                      170 172 175 176 177 179 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP