Gale Warning 268, NWS Anchorage, AK

349 
FZAK51 PAFC 162334
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171230-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT. A 999 MB LOW 195 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT ALEXANDER TUE
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA AND WEAKEN TO A
TROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171230-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171230-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171230-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171230-
MARMOT BAY-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

620 
FZAK51 PAFC 171145
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180000-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUE EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW WILL FORM
170 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED MORNING AND MOVE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND WED EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-180000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 
12 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180000-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180000-
RESURRECTION BAY-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180000-
PORT VALDEZ-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. DENSE FOG IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180000-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180000-
VALDEZ ARM-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180000-
PASSAGE CANAL-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180000-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180000-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180000-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180000-
CHINIAK BAY-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180000-
MARMOT BAY-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180000-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180000-
KACHEMAK BAY-
345 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
CORE OF A RATHER STRONG SEVERAL THOUSAND MILE LONG JET STREAM
REMAINS CENTERED BETWEEN 35N AND 40N WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA. BITS OF ENERGY AND EDDIES PERIODICALLY
BREAK OFF OF THE DOWNSTREAM END OF THIS LARGE JET AND AND ARE
PULLED NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING BY THE LARGE
VERTICALLY STACK LOW CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...EACH WAVE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMY WEATHER.

CURRENTLY A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT AT 55N 148W UNDER THE LEFT EXIT OF A SMALL JET
PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TODAY
FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TIGHTENING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A BIT FURTHER
TO THE WEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH ACCOMPANYING SOUTHERLY 500 MB
JET SUPPORT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE SIMILARLY...THE VERY STRONG
JET STREAM AND THE LARGE ARRAY OF SMALL BUT FAST MOVING
FEATURES ARE ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO RAPIDLY
CREEP INTO THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING A WARMING TREND AS
WELL AS PERIODIC WET AND WINDY FRONTAL SYSTEMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND DETAILS OF
EACH SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST
ISSUE IN THE TRANSITION FROM ARCTIC AIR TO A MORE "MARINE"
ENVIRONMENT. GENERALLY EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF FROM THE
SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY AND LIKELY REACH THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BRING SNOWFALL
FROM NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA INTO TUESDAY. WINDS ALONG
COASTAL BRISTOL BAY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHES THE AKPEN...BUT WIDESPREAD AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM MOST
AREAS RECEIVING SNOWFALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AS
CLEARING SKIES RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FOCUS OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE
COMPLEX LOW CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. WINDS AND SHOWERS IN THE
AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER BACK
TO THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY. THIS NEXT LOW WILL BRING
RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AKPEN BEGINNING THIS
EVENING...AND THEN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BACK INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING ON
TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE LIMITING FACTOR TO THIS BLIZZARD MAY BY
WITH HOW MUCH WARM AIR REACHES THE ISLANDS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING BACK INTO UPPER 20S...BUT SNOWFALL RATES FROM THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A BROADLY CYCLONIC JET WILL CURVE
THOUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THIS WEEK. IT WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LOW TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AND REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...WITH WAVES MOVING AROUND THE LOW AND
AFFECTING THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. BEYOND THIS SYNOPTIC
PICTURE HOWEVER...THE MODELS RAPIDLY FALL INTO DISARRAY CONCERNING
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES...LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE
UNTIL STEADIER MODEL TRENDS ARE PRODUCED.

THE WPC SOLUTION HEAVILY INCORPORATED THE EC ENSEMBLE WITH
SEVERAL OTHER COMPONENTS. THIS CONSOLIDATES A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN TUE NIGHT THAT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY
THU..AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN BERING ON SAT. LOWS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW REACH THE NORTH GULF
COAST THU AND SAT. THE FORECAST MAINLY UTILIZED WPC IN THE LONG
TERM DUE TO THE STRUGGLING DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT ALSO
ENHANCED THE WIND FIELD AND OTHER FEATURES USING THE OPERATIONAL
EC, WHICH OFTEN RESEMBLED WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW 145. BLIZZARD WATCH 195.
MARINE...STORMS 119. GALES 120 125 129 130 131 132 139 150 155 165
170 173 174 175 176 177 179 180 351 412 413 414. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY 140 179 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP