Gale Warning 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Mar 15, 2015, 3:00 PM AKDT (23:00 UTC)

Expired

Mar 16, 2015, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

213 
FZAK52 PAFC 152300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161145-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 90 NM EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 195 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 977 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN TO 370 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 986 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161145-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161145-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. E OF UNALASKA...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W OF UNALASKA...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE
AFTERNOON. E OF UNALASKA...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W OF UNALASKA...NW WIND 20 KT. E OF UNALASKA...S WIND 20
KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NW 20 KT W OF SHEMYA. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 DIMINISHING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ181-161145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.

$$

PKZ185-161145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT S AND E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 15, 5:24 AM AKDT, 9 hours 36 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
524 AM AKDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A VERY STRONG ZONAL JET STREAM REMAINS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF 40N
THROUGH AROUND 155W BEFORE A SMALLER PIECE CURVES NORTH ALONG
150N AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE RESULTS OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ARE A 970 MB
SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY 100 NM SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND A STRONG SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
UNIMAK PASS AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS A 60 TO 80 KT 500 MB SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY JET ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE FRONT WILL KEEP IT
STRONG AS IT CROSSES THE GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL SPIN UP AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
BRISTOL BAY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECOND SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

IN GENERAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING AND IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE BIG LOW AND PERTINENT
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE AREA OF DIFFERENCE HOWEVER
INVOLVES THE SPEED AT WHICH THEY ARE ADVECTING WARM AIR NORTH WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ALEUTIANS...WITH THE NAM AND EC LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS (WARM
ADVECTION WISE) AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE BERING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE RATE AT WHICH SNOW IS CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
SUPPORTS THE MORE QUICKLY WARMING GFS SOLUTION.

WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TREND OF WARMING AND MOISTENING
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS CONSISTENT...MODEL
DIFFERENCES DO START TO INCREASE WITH THE TIMING OF THE TWO WAVES
LIFTING NORTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO WITH THE
FOLLOWING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS MOVING NORTH AND
EAST. AN UPPER LOW IS SETTLING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE LEADING WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW THAT IS
OVER KODIAK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE GULF COAST LATER
THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INLAND LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL OPEN UP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM 15 TO
20 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAYS HIGHS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT FOR COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE EASTERN KENAI...AND
COULD ALSO MIX WITH WINDS IN PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM FOR SOME NASTY WINTER CONDITIONS. FURTHER INLAND MUCH LESS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WILL "DOWN-SLOPE" MOST AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INLAND WILL BE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSAGE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA IS BEGINNING TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER COASTAL BRISTOL BAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WHICH WILL
CREATE ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
ENOUGH SNOW FALLS TO CREATE VISIBILITY ISSUES. SNOW AND WIND WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN MOST AREAS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH JUST AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE
ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THIS AREA CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONTINUED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY IN A SMALL BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE WINDS
ALONE ARE CONTINUING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND A MILE. AS
SNOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...WHICH MAY CREATE BRIEF
PERIODS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE COMMON OR LONG LASTING ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE
BLIZZARD WARNING THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM THIS
MORNING. THE LOW WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BRING PERIODS OF SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PASS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AS STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW TO DIMINISH.

THIS PERSISTENT AND VERY SLOW MOVING LOW CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWER TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS...BECOMING RAIN AND SNOW AS YOU MOVE FURTHER EAST
TOWARDS THE AKPEN. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GUSTY IN MOST AREAS
AROUND THIS LOW...BUT ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PRIBILOFS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER STRONG WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND AKPEN THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE AMERICAN MODELS BEGINNING
TO CONVERGE CLOSER ONTO A COMMON SOLUTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINING STATIONARY NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...WITH A EQUALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW SPLITTING OFF THE
MAIN SYSTEM AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK UP TOWARD THE AKPEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS NEW SYSTEM WILL ABSORB THE PRIMARY LOW AND QUICKLY BECOME
THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM EITHER TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE WEEKEND (EC)...OR
TRACKING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THEN CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS
INTO THE WEEKEND (GFS). HOWEVER WITH THE CONTINUED MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH THE MID AND LONG TERM...THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF MOST OF THESE FEATURES REMAIN OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE OVERALL EFFECT OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS/BERING.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BERING...WHILE WARMER
AIR PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE GULF
LOWS MOVE NORTH DURING THE WEEK...THEY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE GULF
COAST WITH SOME SNOW CROSSING COASTAL RANGES AND REACHING INLAND
ZONES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH 125. BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 130 138 180 414.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 131 132 139 150 155 160 165 170
                      173 174 175 179 181 185 351 352 412 413.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 139 140 179 185 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.