Gale Warning 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

702 
FZAK62 PAFC 290005
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291515-
305 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL DRIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI. A COMPLEX 990 MB LOW NEAR
48N 166W WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT.
A 1009 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 168E FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-291515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-291515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-291515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-291515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

587 
FZAK62 PAFC 291215
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300230-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL DRIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH FRI. A 996 MB NORTH
PACIFIC COMPLEX LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING. A 1008 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 48N 166E
AT 1000 MB FRI MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 1007 AS IT MOVES TO 55N
169E FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-300230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF
174W.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

360 
FZAK62 PAFC 300000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301500-
300 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL
DISSIPATE LATE FRI.

$$

PKZ411-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NE TO SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 PM AKST TUE JAN 27 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO OVER BRISTOL
BAY. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING ENTRAINED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. TWO PROMINENT
UPPER LOW CENTERS ARE EVIDENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGE...A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
SKIRTING THE AK PEN FROM THE SOUTH AND AN OLDER CENTER DRIFTING
SOUTH OF THE EAST CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...
EAST...FAIR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. TEMPERATURES MODERATED SOME WEST OF THE
CHUGACH/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS NE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER VALDEZ NARROWS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
AND LOW WIND CHILLS FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO THOMPSON PASS.

WEST...MODERATE SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A FRONTAL BAND ADVANCING FROM THE
SOUTH TOWARD THE AK PEN IS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE AK PEN
AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL MARINE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...HIGH PRESSURE
WAS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE PINCH IN PRESSURE
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND GENERALLY LOWER PRESSURE TO THE EAST
PRODUCED BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. COLD AIR SPILLING DOWN THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WAS EVIDENT BY THE
PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE OPEN CELL CU OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE GFS MODEL IN GENERAL WILL BE USED OUT WEST WITH A COMBO
OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INLAND FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST WHERE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WEATHER FRONT PIVOTS
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
COOLER THAN OBSERVED LAST NIGHT...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PLUMMET INTO
THE -30S.

TOWARD KODIAK...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR OVER
THE AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY RAIN CONTINUING IN THE CITY OF
KODIAK BUT MIXING OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ISLAND WITH INCREASED ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA WILL REMAIN COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE AREAS AROUND BRISTOL BAY WILL BE WARMER AND WINDIER.
EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES
AND FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE DELTA...THE AREA WILL BE DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THIS WILL KEEP STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GALES OVER REST OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY
DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AFTER THAT...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP
TO KEEP A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF 50 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS THUS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN A DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...WITH A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 175 176 177.
GALE WARNING 120 127 130 131 132 138 150 155 165 170 171 172 174
             179 180.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...126 127 128 139 140 141 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB