Gale Warning 220, NWS Anchorage, AK

676 
FZAK62 PAFC 011107
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020130-
307 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR 53N 158W WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB WED NIGHT IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST
BERING WED THEN TRACK TO THE THE CENTRAL BERING THU NIGHT. A LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR 46N 169E AT 1002 MB THU MORNING AND TRACK TO
53N 175E AT 995 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING S UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY E OF 175W IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY E OF 175W IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 AM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS TO
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

706 
FZAK62 PAFC 012325
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021315-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW AT 54N 164E WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES TO 59N
161E THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IN AN ARC AROUND THE LOW
TO 53N 172E WILL MOVE EAST AND STALL ALONG AN ARC FROM 60N 170E TO
51N 168W THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. A
1006 MB LOW FORMS AT 47N 171E THU AFTERNOON THEN INTENSIFIES TO A
998 MB LOW AT 57N 176W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING E OF 175E.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

298 
FZAK62 PAFC 020137 RRA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021315-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW AT 54N 164E WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES TO 59N
161E THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IN AN ARC AROUND THE LOW
TO 53N 172E WILL MOVE EAST AND STALL ALONG AN ARC FROM 60N 170E TO
51N 168W THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. A
1006 MB LOW FORMS AT 47N 171E THU AFTERNOON THEN INTENSIFIES TO A
998 MB LOW AT 57N 176W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING E OF 175E.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
325 PM AKDT WED APR 1 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

209 
FZAK62 PAFC 021202
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
402 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030145-
402 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A LARGE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL PUSH A SERIES OF FRONTS NORTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THU NIGHT AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BERING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1006 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 46N 170E
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 59N 168W FRI NIGHT WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO 1002 MB.

$$

PKZ411-030145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
402 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
402 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
402 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW TO SW 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
402 AM AKDT THU APR 2 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF
166W.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
518 AM AKDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALASKA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES REMAINING OVER THE FAR
WESTERN BERING AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR OF THE
STATE. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEARLY ZONAL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN THEN DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT STORM TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE TWO RELATIVELY WEAK LOWS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF AND ANOTHER JUST
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPED OFF OF THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND
MOVED ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY LAST (SUN) EVENING AS THE 00Z
ANCHORAGE SOUNDING DEPICTED LIFTED INDICES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO (MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE)...BUT THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BULK OF
PRECIP HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM MOVING MOVING SLOWLY WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARD THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA EAST OF BETHEL WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK
DEFORMATION BAND THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY IN WEAK UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
GENERALLY HIGH. WITH WEAK FLOW OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON THE LOCAL
SCALE...WITH ELEMENTS SUCH AS FOG AND DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEY ALL HINT AT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A
TRIPLE POINT LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW ALMOST ALL MODELS DEPICT THE
INITIAL PARENT LOW REMAINING THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
GULF. IN ANY CASE THESE DIFFERENCES ONLY AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
DIRECT VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS WAS LARGELY PREFERRED IN
THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME DEFERENCE TO THE NAM EARLY FOR LOCAL
EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (THROUGH WED NIGHT)...
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH WED.
AN UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH
PUSHING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF WED. THIS SECONDARY THROUGH WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR. AVAILABLE SOUNDING AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE THE DOMINATE
CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. FREEZING LEVELS
THROUGH WED WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN BECOMING MORE MIXED
OR SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WED AS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF CREATES NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

KODIAK AND GULF
AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO THE SW GULF EARLY WED WILL BRING
SNOW AND RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND BEGINNING EARLY WED MORNING.
THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB WIND DIRECTIONS (SE) WOULD INDICATE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START INITIALLY AS SNOW OR MIX AND RAPIDLY
TRANSITION TOWARD RAIN. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL HAVE
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION WILL HAVE
LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
IN THE MORNING TODAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE DIMINISHING OF THE STRATUS AND FOG GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW JUST SOUTH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE KODIAK ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WITH CONTINUED WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS A GALE FORCE NORTH PACIFIC LOW JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS NEAR NIKOLSKI THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE CHAIN...BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WET AND
SOUTHERLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
BERING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY...THE AKPEN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY GAP FLOW AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE
WESTERN ALEUTAINS WILL HAVE A GALE FORCE LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT BRINGING THE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THERE WILL BE A NEAR GALE
FORCE FRONT MOVING UP TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WATER BUT WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
COULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURES. COLDER UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN IN THE GULF AND MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY. AT THIS
POINT THE PATTERN TURNS MORE AMPLIFIED OUT WEST...BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THIS WILL AFFECT THE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND.
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 132 138 155 172 173 174 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...ML