Gale Warning 214, NWS Anchorage, AK

529 
FZAK61 PAFC 191110
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200145-
310 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 58N 149W WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A 991 MB
LOW NEAR 53N 149W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 56N 159W FRI AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE WEST. A 993 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 139W FRI
MORNING THEN TO 57N 139W AT 1000 MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-200145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

665 
FZAK61 PAFC 192338
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201315-
338 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 54N 149W WILL MOVE TO 54N 164W AT 1001 MB SAT.
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 53N 139W THU NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 59N 143W AT
1002 MB SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-201315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
338 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
338 PM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO
11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 300
MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IMPACT THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST...COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE MAINLAND AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
FIRST OF THESE FEATURES IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS SPREADING
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND AS IT BEGINS
TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE STORY REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
OVERALL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES ARISING WITH RESPECT TO THE VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. MAINLY UTILIZED THE GEM
REGIONAL FOR ENHANCED DETAIL BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE EC IN THE
MID TERM. AGREEMENT REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS THE BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR AND THE AKPEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
GUIDANCE STARTING TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE CURRENT
LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
EASTERN ALASKA. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL RIDE THIS FLOW INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL FALL ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST. VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INLAND DUE TO DOWN-SLOPING IN
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOWS
STAYING SOUTH OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS
IS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF
COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAINLY IMPACT KODIAK...WITH
THE SURFACE LOW STAYING SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL
BRING WET SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FROM WESTERN BRISTOL BAY...THAT
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A WARM NOSE EXTENDING TO 3000 FT ON THIS MORNINGS BETHEL
SOUNDING...PRECIP SHOULD INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OVER THE DELTA...BUT
THEN BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT WET
BULBS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE RISING TO
ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS SAME TIME...SO A ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS
EVENING...A FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA AND
BRING RAIN/SNOW BACK TO THE AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
EVENING...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STATIONARY LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO DRIVE
THE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A WEAK LOW THAT FORMED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE YESTERDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID
MORNING. TO THE WEST...SNOWFALL THAT HAS BEEN FALLING OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ALL NIGHT WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST AND MIX WITH
RAIN...BRINING AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO MANY
AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SAME SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK IN THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING AREAS A BLOWING SNOW
BACK TO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP FOR SHOWERS AND WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN WILL MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF AK/NORTHERN
PACIFIC BY THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT THE MODELS BECOME OUT OF
PHASE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO PLUMMET. BUT EVEN BEFORE
THE WEEKEND THE MODEL SURFACE SOLUTION DEGRADES TO A SET OF LOWS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE MAIN LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...AND ROTATING ACROSS THE GULF AND NORTHERN PACIFIC.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE THAT THE FIRST LOW PINWHEELING INTO
THE GULF WILL AFFECT KODIAK ISLAND THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AFTER THAT
TIME CONSENSUS FAILS. FORTUNATELY WPC GUIDANCE AGAIN UTILIZES AN
ENSEMBLE BLEND THAT RESTORES SOME REASON AND KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY PINWHEELING
LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NE GULF BY SAT...WITH A SERIES OF
LOWS REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN UTILIZED THE 00Z EC SOLUTION FOR THE LOW
INTO KODIAK...AND THEN WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE CURRENT MODEL SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM. IN THE WEST...MAINLY
RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI INTO
SAT...AND THEN SOME SNOW MAY AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS SUN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IN THE EAST RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL
ZONES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE FROM OVER
THE GULF TO THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 138 139 160 170 172 173 174 175 176
               177 185 351 412 413.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 412
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP