Gale Warning 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

225 
FZAK51 PAFC 251255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260130-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 MB LOW 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 230
NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT ALEXANDER AT 1017 MB WED NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-260130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-260130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-260130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-260130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-260130-
PORT VALDEZ-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-260130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-260130-
VALDEZ ARM-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-260130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4
FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2
FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-260130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-260130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-260130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-260130-
CHINIAK BAY-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-260130-
MARMOT BAY-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-260130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-260130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-260130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-260130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
355 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 AM AKST TUE FEB 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN RUSSIA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. AT THE SURFACE THIS IS REFLECTED AS A WEAK
LOW NEAR 65N 178E WITH A WEATHER FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH OVER THE NUNIVAK ISLAND AREA. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WHICH IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE WEATHER FRONT AT THE SURFACE PUSHING
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TODAY. THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ARE REPORTING SNOW
SHOWERS.

THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS IS RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS/FOG IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND
IS BEING SHOWN ON THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY SATELLITE PRODUCT. THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KING SALMON NORTHWARD INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY INTERIOR ARE REPORTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING.

THE GULF AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION ARE SITTING UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR MAJORITY OF SOUTHCENTRAL
THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG COVERING
THE NORTHERN GULF...AND SPREADING INTO THE CORDOVA AND VALDEZ
AREAS. UPSTREAM THERE IS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...AND REFLECTED WITH A GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW
NEAR 50N 156W. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME. THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE GEM-REG/ECMWF. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE NAM
KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS OVER MAINLAND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN TRAVERSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY THEN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THIS THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND INCREASE
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...THUS INCREASING THE WINDS THROUGH THE
FAVORED GAPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONTAL ZONE IS TRACKING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND THE LAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN SHALLOW BASINS AND VALLEYS. THIS
FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS
INCREASE...AND SOLAR RADIATION BURNS THE REMAINDER OFF. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH COOLING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
HEADING INTO THURSDAY...WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE GULF WILL BE EAST AND CLEAR OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING AS IT TRACKS OVER HAIDA GWAII. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF BEHIND IT PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY MAKING FOR A RATHER
NICE AND SUNNY DAY. OFFSHORE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
HOWEVER TO PREVENT FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN MOST SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DO HAVE CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY AS THE WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH UP THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON FRIDAY REACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN CURVE NORTHEAST UP THE GULF
COAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
THE NORTH AND CARRIED UP AND OVER TOP THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH FOLLOWING THE COAST BUT
JUST INLAND...THE CANADIAN REMAINING OFFSHORE AND TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF BUT DEEPEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
EUROPEAN ALSO SOUTH AND OFFSHORE BUT WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
LOW. GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE RIDGE FOR
IT TO RIDE UP AND OVER I TEND TO FAVOR THE MORE NORTHERLY AND
STRONGER SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT AT DAY 5 OF
THE FORECAST HAVE CHOSEN TO AVERAGE THE POSITIONS AND STRENGTH FOR
TODAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. RIDGING WILL RETURN SUNDAY CLEARING
THINGS OUT AGAIN RATHER RAPIDLY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SE...STORMIER WEATHER WILL
PERSIST FOR THE DURATION. BY THURSDAY THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL HAVE TRACKED TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BE WEAKENING
SOMEWHAT WHILE WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS COOL SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOOKING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL REACH THE WESTERN END OF THE CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING AT LEAST WIDESPREAD GALES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE LARGE PARENT LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 175 177 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...JER