Gale Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

482 
FZAK61 PAFC 201229
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210230-
329 AM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 987 MB LOW AT 56N 144W WILL MOVE TO 59N 143W AT 990 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 982 MB LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP
NEAR 54N 147W AND MOVE TO 59N 142W AT 980 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-210230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
329 AM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ352-210230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
329 AM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

047 
FZAK61 PAFC 210008
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
308 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211330-
308 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 987 MB LOW AT 59N
144W WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST GULF WED NIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU.

$$

PKZ351-211330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
308 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-211330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
308 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT EXCEPT BECOMING SW 30 KT E OF 147W IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW TO SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKST MON JAN 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE BERING
STRAIT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND A
SECOND WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA. THE 300 MB IS SHOWING A 90
KNOT ZONAL JET STREAK LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING
SEA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION EXTENDING SOUTH
IN THE WESTERN GULF IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING MOSTLY STRATUS IN THE GULF. THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY WAS PICKING UP THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE EASTERN GULF AT 500 MB IS
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA. THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF SITKA
WITH THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWING UPPER END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE OTHER KEY FEATURE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR COLD BAY. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE HAS THE BACK EDGE OF
THE TROUGH JUST EAST OF COLD BAY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW ENTERING
THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS MODELS TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE...THE GEM-REG/EC MODELS
TRACK THE LOW MORE TOWARDS THE WEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES INLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE COMPLEX NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANGES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS COOK INLET...MAT-
SU...AND THE KENAI PEN WITH A MIXTURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE
ON TUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS...HOWEVER SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY REFORM OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AND
GIVE RISE TO BRISK OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
MOST LOCATIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK
SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...RATHER
QUIESCENT WEATHER FOR THE BERING SEA WILL BE THE DOMINANT MODE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE BERING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY AS A NORTH PACIFIC
FRONT MOVES APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN MUCH THE SAME. A
LARGE COMPLEX STACKED LOW CENTER SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE COMING
WEEK. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL HANG
AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SWING OVER THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND PUSH ONTO THE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY. BEYOND
THAT TIME PERIOD MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW TO HANDLE THESE
FEATURES AS WELL AS A LINGERING UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
IT APPEARS HOWEVER THAT A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL SET UP
AND CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
         GALE 155 172 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MTL