Gale Warning 184, NWS Anchorage, AK

257 
FZAK52 PAFC 220003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221330-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 130 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND MOVES TO 160 NM
WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 989 MB LATE SUN NIGHT. A 999 MB
LOW 140 NM NORTH OF ATTU SUN AFTERNOON MOVES TO 190 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 996 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221330-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221330-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY W OF SHEMYA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-221330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  PATCHY
FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SET UP OVER THE MAINLAND.
THE ANCHOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED POSITION WHILE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAMS FROM STRAIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH WITH A CONNECTION
TO THE SUB-TROPICS BRINGING A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS WITH OVER 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. RIDING THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE 140KT JET STREAK IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PULLING A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER THE
MAINLAND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE HAMPERING TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING IN PARTS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL WHILE
WINDS IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY ARE MIXING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE UP
QUITE NICELY BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S. THE FOCUS ON
TEMPERATURES CONCERNS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE MAINLAND THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. AN ABOVE FREEZING WARM
NOSE IS ALREADY PRESENT ON THE 20/12Z SOUNDING OVER ANCHORAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THE HILLSIDE ALREADY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BOWL IS BELOW FREEZING. THE FOCUS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND FREEZING RAIN CHANCES IN
THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT CONSIDERING
THE LOWER LATITUDE WHERE THEY ORIGINATED FROM. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARE THE USUAL...VARYING AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION COMING OVER THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH/KENAI MOUNTAINS
IN A DOWNSLOPE REGIME. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE COOK INLET REGION WITH FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE HAVE SOME INITIAL STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN
ISLANDS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...AND
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE
RATHER WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME POCKETS
OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE INLAND ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FOR ANCHORAGE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT REMAINING NEAR
MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL...AND WITH LARGELY GEOSTROPHIC FLOW ACROSS
TURNAGAIN ARM AS WELL AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
JET...EXPECT LIGHT BUT GENERALLY STEADY PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH.

FOR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REACH UPWARDS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NEAR VALDEZ AS RAIN COMBINES WITH SNOWMELT TO CREATE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS WHERE THERE IS POOR OR NO DRAINAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL FRONT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND EXIT OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL TRACK NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
BERING BY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM AS IT
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS HAVING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AREAS...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WET CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. THE TYPICAL "COLD SPOTS" OVER
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY (SLEETMUTE AND STONY RIVER) HAVE
STARTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT OVER THE AREA. WHILE A LITTLE SNOW MAY STILL MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN...THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN. THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPED LOCATIONS...KING SALMON AND
BETHEL...WILL SEE SOME RAIN-SHADOWING TO START THE EVENT. BUT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 THROUGH 3)...
ONE SMALL WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND FALL APART OVER THE
WESTERN BERING. THE BIGGER STORY IS THE EASTERN BERING WHERE WAVE
AFTER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC UP ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE BERING STRAIT. THIS PATTERN IS KEEPING
THINGS WARM AND WET FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. BUT IT IS ALSO SETTING UP A NICE DEFORMATION
ZONE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH COLD AIR TO THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR PLACES LIKE ATKA AND ADAK. A
SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING WET
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MAINLAND WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY EVENING...THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL BRING A SHORT LIVED REPRIEVE FROM THE CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER WARM NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE
AKPENN ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE LOW
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIMILAR IMPACTS TO THE
MAINLAND AS THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND TO KEEP A
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND BRISTOL
BAY...AND IS PROBABLY THE BEST CASE SCENARIO BY KEEPING THE
MAINLAND STILL WARM WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING WARM
AIR AND PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO
THURSDAY. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP FROM THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE BERING WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END (AT LEAST FOR NOW) TO
THE WARM AND MOIST NORTH PACIFIC LOWS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 138
         GALE 119 120 132 136 137 139 150 160 175 176 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DEK