Gale Warning 160, NWS Anchorage, AK

546 
FZAK52 PAFC 130010
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131245-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI THEN DISSIPATE BY SAT. A 987 MB LOW 
160 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 85 NM NORTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON AT 994 MB. A BROAD LOW WILL THEN PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ150-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131245-
BRISTOL BAY-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ165-131245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131245-
UNALASKA BAY-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ181-131245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-131245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
310 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
405 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS FLANKED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THE 250 MB
JET IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT FLOWS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND
GULF OF ALASKA.

THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY
MOVED INTO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS
NOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA REMAINS IN PLACE AND
IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. A FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRINGING
WARMER AIR IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS FROM YESTERDAY WERE ALL A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH THE LOW
THAT IS TRACKING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
ALL BROUGHT THE LOW INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BUT THE LOW
WENT INTO THE EASTERN SOUND. THE RESULT IS THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE TOP OF THEM.

FOR TODAY THE MODELS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER WELL WITH THE ANCHOR LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE AREA IS
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN EXAMPLE OF THESE DIFFERENCES IS WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING UP COOK INLET TOMORROW. THE ECMWF IS BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AROUND COOK INLET TOMORROW WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING LITTLE TO
NO SNOWFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CHUGACH RANGE WHILE
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. SNOW WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...ENDING
LATE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF GLENNALLEN TOWARD THE ALASKA
RANGE.

OTHERWISE...THE MAJOR FORECAST HEADACHE THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO
WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING EACH DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. WITH A LESS STABLE REGIME AND
RELATIVELY LITTLE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW...THERE IS A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CHANCE THAT A TIMELY-POSITIONED DISTURBANCE COULD CREATE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH AND
KENAI MOUNTAIN RANGES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA HAVE STARTED TO PUSH INTO
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AS THE
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING LIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. WITH CONTINUED GUSTY OFFSHORE
FLOW THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE DELTA COAST WHERE THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST. ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND ALASKA PENINSULA ARE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN MIXING
IN WITH SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ALONG WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OVER
DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW (THURSDAY) MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING SATURDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK TROUGH AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN
TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
FROM THE COAST TO INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGHING
ALOFT LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GENERALLY
BE SNOW INLAND...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NEAR
COASTAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...INLAND PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SHOWERY.

BY MONDAY...A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO UNFOLD AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL BERING...SPREADING WARM SUBTROPICAL AIR
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. BESIDES HEAVY COASTAL RAIN...THE GENERAL
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE SUCCESSFUL IN ERODING ANY COLD AIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BY MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO IMPACT THE BERING SEA WITH A
PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE ICE EDGE...EVENTUALLY
TURNING SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING STRAIGHT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 141
         BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 195
MARINE...GALE 173 174 175 176 179 181
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA