Gale Warning 159, NWS Anchorage, AK

628 
FZAK51 PAFC 120021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121300-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 325 SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WED NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 990 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-121300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING E. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-121300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ121-121300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-121300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-121300-
PORT VALDEZ-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-121300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-121300-
VALDEZ ARM-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-121300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING E 10 KT. NEAR
WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-121300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE 15 KT EARLY INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT EARLY BUILDING
TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ131-121300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ132-121300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ136-121300-
CHINIAK BAY-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ137-121300-
MARMOT BAY-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING S 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-121300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-121300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EARLY INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-121300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-121300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
321 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
437 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IS
AMPLIFYING AGAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THIS COMBINATION IS SENDING THE STORM
TRACK BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THE FIRST OF A NUMBER OF LOWS HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE GULF THIS
MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER
THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE
WEATHER SITUATION. THE NAM AND GEM LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG IN
DEVELOPING AN OPEN WAVE INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE GULF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
COMPLEX IN NATURE AS IT HEADS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY BUT
THE ECMWF IS MOVING THE SYSTEM THE FARTHEST TO THE WEST WHICH IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THE IMPACT THIS WILL AVE ON THE FORECAST WILL BE
TO BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE GULF AND GULF COAST THAN SOLUTIONS
THAT SHOW THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEEPENING STORM FORCE LOW THAT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
NORTH GULF BY LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
THE GULF COAST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY THAT SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED TO THE EAST...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TOMORROW. HEAVIER SNOWS WILL FALL
FROM THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA INTO THE THOMPSON PASS...HOWEVER
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE FALLING APART ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
CRASHES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THESE
SHOULD ALL STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONDITIONS THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE
ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL OTHERWISE STAY
MOSTLY DRY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE DELTA IN PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING WILL KEEP RAIN AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS IN PLACE. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND THE BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING...INCLUDING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING FRIDAY...A GENERAL REGIME CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW...CENTERED OVER 165W...TRACKS IN A SERIES OF
WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH
THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE EASTERN BERING...THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK NORTH. WITH THAT
SAID...EACH FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL FEATURE A RENEWED SURGE OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA...ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AS WELL AS OVER THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS...WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND. WITH THE
PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN IN PLACE...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
SNOW INLAND...ALTHOUGH RAIN AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AS A MORE VIGOROUS LOW TRACKS INLAND.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ACTIVE NORTH PACIFIC POLAR JET REMAINING DISPLACED
NEAR 40N. DISCREPANCY IN THE SUITE OF GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INCREASES BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GDPS MORE BULLISH
WITH RESPECT TO SOUTHERN STREAM ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA. FOR NOW...A MORE MIDDLE GROUND WPC APPROACH WAS FAVORED
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF POTENTIAL BLOCKING OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 130 138
         GALE 120 127 131 132 136 137 139 160 165 170 173
         174 175 176 177 179 180 181 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 127 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA