Gale Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

932 
FZAK62 PAFC 112358
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
258 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121345-
258 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 968 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172E WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 975 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 973 MB LOW NEAR 45N
157W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 961 MB NEAR 51N 159W MON AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING TO 972 MB NEAR 56N 162W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
258 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-121345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
258 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-121345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
258 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-121345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
258 PM AKST SUN JAN 11 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

771 
FZAK62 PAFC 121249
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130145-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 965 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173E WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...THEN WILL DRIFT
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER. A 968 MB LOW NEAR
51N 158W WILL MOVE TO 54N 159W AT 968 MB LATE MON NIGHT...THEN
MOVE TO 55N 174W AT 979 MB BY TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-130145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-130145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-130145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW TO NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...NE TO NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-130145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
349 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

343 
FZAK62 PAFC 130010
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131400-
310 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 MB LOW NEAR 48N 173E WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 973 MB NEAR 45N
179W WED AFTERNOON. A 961 MB LOW NEAR 51N 159W WILL WEAKEN TO 967
MB NEAR 54N 157W EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY AND
WEAKENING TO 975 MB NEAR 54N 174E WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 962 MB COMPLEX
LOW WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS WILL MOVE TO NEAR 52N 158W WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-131400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

499 
FZAK62 PAFC 131243
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140145-
343 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 967 MB LOW NEAR 53N 157W WILL
MOVE TO 56N 158W AT 978 MB MIDDAY TUE...THEN MOVE TO 55N 180W AT
976 MB LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AKPEN
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUE NIGHT AND STALL THERE THROUGH LATE
WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-140145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-140145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-140145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO
8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-140145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
408 PM AKST SAT JAN 10 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALASKA REMAINS LOCKED IN A PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THIS HAS BEEN BRINGING GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SURGES OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO MUCH OF THE STATE. WE FIND A
SIMILAR PATTERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH MOST OF THE MAINLAND IS IN A
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS RESULTING IN SOME NICE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AROUND COOK INLET TODAY. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF
IS MAKING A WESTWARD TRANSIT THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG RIDGE...AND IS BRINGING SOME BANDS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA...FALLING LARGELY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BEING
ENHANCED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY AN ACTIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
IN THE AREA...AND IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...MIDLEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING BACK IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WHICH HAS AIDED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG AROUND THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. THIS FOG
HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF WITH WEAK INSOLATION AND CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...BUT AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A BERING SEA TROUGH...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TREND IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ARE BENIGN WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS MOVING OVER FROM THE SOUTH.

WAY OUT WEST...AN ELONGATED AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CHURNING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...AND IS LOCATED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A
PERSISTENT AND STRONG 200 KT EAST ASIAN JET. A RELATIVELY
DISORGANIZED FRONT IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WITH MORE WARM AIR...RAIN...AND GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS FRONT IS
MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD...AND WILL
REACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN LOCKED IN PLACE...THE MODELS ARE ALL
DOING RELATIVELY WELL. THE NAM IS HANGING THE UPPER LOW IN THE
GULF TOO FAR EASTWARD...AND WAS DISCARDED IN FAVOR OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALONG THE GULF COAST...RATHER THAN
KEEPING IT CONFINED TO THE AREA EAST OF CORDOVA (AS DEPICTED BY
THE NAM). OUT WEST...SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BROAD LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SEEM A BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST
WITH THE UPPER LOW BEYOND 36 HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT AND ARE FAVORED FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY WITH NO END IN SIGHT. A WEAKENING SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL DRIFT WESTWARD BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THE
COOK INLET REGION WILL STAY CLEAR EARLY IN THE EVENING TONIGHT
BEFORE A MID-LEVEL DECK SPREADS OVERHEAD WITH THE APPROACHING GULF
SYSTEM. ON MONDAY A FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE GULF
WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE MAJORITY OF THE COOK INLET REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS WHILE KACHEMAK BAY WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST...FALLING AS RAIN BUT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A RIDGE ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS BRINGING FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN AND FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DRIFTING AROUND THE AREA FOLLOWING THE
WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WITH
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL BUT SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG BECOMING MORE
PATCHY AND TRANSITIONING MORE TO STRATUS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR MORE RAPIDLY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF. THE
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUING TO BUILD PARTICULAR THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF
CHANNELED TERRAIN. ALSO MIDDAY A BROAD FRONT WILL REACH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION FURTHER INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AS THE PARENT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRIFTS TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NORTH
INTO THE BERING AND WEAKEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT
LOW CURVES TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SECOND WRAP OF THE FRONT ROTATING
UP TOWARDS SHEMYA ON MONDAY AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES.
WINDS IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE LARGE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT A SLOW MOVING/DEEPENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR KODIAK
ISLAND AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL BY EARLY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN (WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING RAIN).

SAME BASIC PATTERN CONTINUES THEREAFTER...WITH A STRONG ZONAL JET
REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF 40N AND A PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTS WILL BE A CONTINUING SERIES OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING TO
THE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY STAYING MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. SEVERAL OF THE LOWS WILL TURN NORTH
AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS THEY FILL THEN DISSIPATE.
GIVEN THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALL BE WEAKENING AS THEY LIFT
NORTHWARD...THEY WILL PRIMARILY BRING PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL
AREAS AND OCCASIONALLY FURTHER INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 131 138 150 155 172 174 175 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JER
LONG TERM...TP