Gale Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

684 
FZAK61 PAFC 191225
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 AM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200200-
325 AM AKST THU FEB 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 59N 142W WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY THU
EVENING. A STRENGTHENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF FRI MORNING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE FRI
EVENING. BY SATURDAY THE WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE.

$$

PKZ351-200200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
325 AM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
325 AM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

400 
FZAK61 PAFC 200007
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201415-
307 PM AKST THU FEB 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRENGTHENING FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRI EVENING....THEN REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-201415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
307 PM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
307 PM AKST THU FEB 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

641 
FZAK61 PAFC 201210
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-210245-
310 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FRI MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRI EVENING...THEN WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. THE GULF WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-210245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18
FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-210245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

286 
FZAK61 PAFC 210000
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. A RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THEN REMAINS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST E OF 146W. SEAS 10 TO 15
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST E OF 146W. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 14 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

542 
FZAK61 PAFC 211206
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220245-
306 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH LATE
SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
GULF THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ351-220245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
306 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-220245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
306 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 AM AKST WED FEB 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE WEATHER ROUNDUP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING FEATURES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING AWAY TOWARD THE
BERING STRAIT AND A FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND REMAINS UNDER WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT WITH THE ONLY SIGN OF JET
ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS JET IS
PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT TO A BROAD LOW COMPLEX THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS (THU AFTERNOON) THEN CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THE SAME IDEA...EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS DIFFER.
FORECASTS THIS EVENING TRENDED TOWARDS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (NAM/GEM REGIONAL) IN THE SHORTER TERM AND THEN
TRANSITIONED TO AN ECMWF APPROACH. THE BIGGEST TREND WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. INITIALLY IT WAS LOOKING LIKE THU MIGHT BE THE NICEST DAY
OF THE WEEK FOR PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT IF THE FRONT DOES
INDEED SLOW DOWN...FRI COULD BE QUITE NICE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUE...WE WILL SEE THINGS TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. STARTING OFF THE MORNING...TEMPS
ARE ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WITH MOST PLACES BELOW FREEZING...THIS COULD MAKE FOR A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WITH STANDING WATER FROM YESTERDAY
REFREEZING ON SURFACES. AREAS FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHILE THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S. THE WEAK LOW IN
THE EASTERN GULF IS REACHING A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN INITIALLY
THOUGHT...BUT IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED
TO AREAS FROM THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EAST. THEN THU SHOULD BE QUITE
A SPECTACULAR DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PENDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS. A SHARP...FAST SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AND WITH AN EVER-
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...IT SHOULD FEEL QUITE WARM OUTSIDE. THE ONLY
HINDRANCE TO THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
KNIK ARM. EVEN IF IT WAS TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND THU)...THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MAKING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH BRISTOL
BAY. PRECIPITATION HAS TURNED TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE DELTA
OVERNIGHT BUT WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE
NORTH AND FALL APART THROUGH THE DAY...WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION
BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING TO AN END
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG. THE EXTENT OF
THE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED THOUGH AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
SWITCH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM ROUGHLY -6C TO NEARLY +1C AS THE
NEXT WARM FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
UNTIL NEARLY MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. AS IT DOES SPREAD INLAND...IT
COULD MAKE FOR MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ISSUES ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE DELTA AND LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...THE AREA REMAINS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY QUIET. ONE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT WHILE IT
FALLS APART. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRIES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT IT OUT-RUNS ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LEAVING IT ONLY TO PUSH A WEAK WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYER AS IT ONLY DRIFTS EVER SO SLOWLY EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20TH - THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FEBRUARY 25TH)...

ONCE AGAIN...ALASKA WILL BE ASSAULTED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AND
MOIST NORTH PACIFIC MARITIME AIR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FIRST
NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND AS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTH...BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY TURN TO ALL RAIN
INLAND AS WARM AIR ERODES ANY COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IMPACTING MOST OF THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM AND WET PATTERN. UNCERTAINTY
NATURALLY GROWS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...BUT THE SUITE OF GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 172 175-177 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...JRA