Gale Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

344 
FZAK61 PAFC 140021
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
321 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141430-
321 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 57N 148W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 152W SAT
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE OVER COOK INLET SAT EVENING. A STRONG
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON SUN.

$$

PKZ351-141430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
321 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-141430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
321 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

233 
FZAK61 PAFC 141241
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-150215-
341 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 58N 150W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 152W THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF ON SUN.

$$

PKZ351-150215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
341 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-150215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
341 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

988 
FZAK61 PAFC 150015
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-151445-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 59N 151W WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON SUN.

$$

PKZ351-151445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-151445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST THU FEB 12 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS SITTING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO MAINLAND ALASKA. A CORRESPONDING
TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC.
A MYRIAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
PACIFIC TO MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF. ONE OF THESE WAVES
IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING...BRINGING
PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI
AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS LAST NIGHT CREATED AN ABOVE FREEZING WARM
NOSE (AS SEEN IN THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING). THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP-TYPES IN ANCHORAGE...WITH SNOW...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN ALL BEING REPORTED.

THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. SNOW IS FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW IS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE COMBINING WITH THE FALLING SNOW TO PRODUCE
LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING WITH STEADY SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE ISLANDS.

MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE LOWS HAVE FORMED OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET. THE CHALLENGE MOVING
FORWARD WILL BE THE TRACK OF THESE LOWS AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE SAME GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
INITIALIZATION/VERIFICATION OF THE MANY UPPER LEVEL WAVES AS WELL
AS THE SURFACE LOWS. SPECIFICALLY...MODEL SPREAD GROWS FAIRLY
LARGE WITH LOW TRACK OVER THE GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL AS WITH HANDLING OF MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS IN THE EASTERN
BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA REGION. WITH
ALL OF THE MODELS STRUGGLING TO SOME EXTENT...THERE REALLY IS NOT
A PREFERRED SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WITH ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND COOK INLET LATE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF. THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN COASTS AND EASTERN
KENAI WITH A FEW A ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND.
WINDS LOOK TO BE GUSTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
BERING AND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL PUSH OFF TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS THE AREA...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING WILL KEEP
SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS CONFINED TO
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BERING. BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE PRIBILOFS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVERHEAD AND STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AS
A RESULT. THEREFORE...A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARDS DUTCH
HARBOR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AND TRACKING
BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN TRANSITION WILL MANIFEST
ITSELF AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA. DRIVING THIS WILL BE A STOUT NORTH PACIFIC
LOW...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR. A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT WEDGE OF WARM AIR WILL DRIVE INTO THE INTERIOR...AND
THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS INLAND. AREAS CLOSE TO NORTH-SOUTH BARRIERS
SUCH AS THE CHUGACH AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL SEE HEAVY
DOWNSLOPING...ESPECIALLY ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...WITH THE GFS TRENDING EASTWARD AND WEAKER WHILE THE ECMWF
REMAINS STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES IS IMPORTANT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED WINDS THROUGH MAJOR GAPS...INCLUDING TURNAGAIN ARM.
THE ECMWF WOULD FAVOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT TURNAGAIN ARM WIND...AND
A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMUP TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

THE PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THE FIRST NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES OUT ON TUESDAY...BUT THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS A
WHOLE CONTINUES TO HINT AT CONTINUED WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...179
MARINE...GALES...173-176 179
         HVY FRZG SPRY...179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA