Gale Warning 102, NWS Anchorage, AK

805 
FZAK51 PAFC 291234
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300115-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A FRONT
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-300115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-300115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-300115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-300115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-300115-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-300115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-300115-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-300115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-300115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-300115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-300115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-300115-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-300115-
MARMOT BAY-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-300115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-300115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-300115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-300115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
411 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE FAR
WESTERN BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THIS IS LEAVING A LARGE AND BROAD
CUT OFF LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WIND WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A LARGE HIGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
BERING SEA INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AND THEN EASTWARD INTO CANADA.
THERE IS ALSO A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF IT TO THE NORTHEAST ALL
THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FRONT IS THE FOCAL
POINT FOR THE WEATHER IN BOTH THE GULF AND BERING SEA REGIONS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT IS STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS. THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF THAT
WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. ONE DIFFERENCE THAT
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY WILL BE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF A WAVE EXTENDING OUT OF THE LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE GFS AND 12Z NAM BRING THAT FEATURE NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ENHANCE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. THE 18Z NAM IS LAGGING BEHIND THE GFS
AND 12Z NAM POSITION WHILE THE ECMWF BASICALLY DOES NOT HAVE THIS
FEATURE AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TWO WEAK FRONTAL ZONES OVER THE GULF COAST WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND EAST. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR
COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR
PROMOTING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOME LOCALIZED GAP WINDS
WILL RESULT IN LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAP
LOCATIONS. CONTINUED COLD NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS
WINDS CHILLS. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION AS MORE CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...LIMITING
NIGHT TIME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME NORTHERLY WIND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WIND ALONG WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY. STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
BERING WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS DURING
THE SAME PERIOD...WHILE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE DRY BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FORECAST THINKING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES
THE MAINLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION LARGELY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND KODIAK
ISLAND...WHILE A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY COLD AIR
DRAINING OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 138 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176
                      177 179 180.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 127 139 141 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...CB